Ballots for the 2026 MLS Year-End Awards are officially open!
Who deserves recognition? To help build a well-informed list of favorites, we’re combing through the numbers.
Here's what they say about a crowded field.
The data's favorite: Lionel Messi - Inter Miami CF
I mean, is there any doubt? Lionel Messi leads the league in goal contributions (40; 25g/15a) by a country mile, in addition to leading MLS in expected goals plus expected assists and topping American Soccer Analysis’ goals added metric.Â
The Inter Miami megastar managing such an impressive campaign and a run to the FIFA World Cup final with Argentina is further evidence that he is, in fact, the greatest player of all time. Add in how much Miami’s frontline has changed from last year to this year, and it's somehow even more impressive. Playing alongside true No. 9s Luis Suárez and Germán Berterame, rather than wingers Mateo Silvetti and Tadeo Allende from 2025's title run, Messi has been every bit as effective.
Last year, Messi became the first player in MLS history to win back-to-back MVP awards. This year, he’ll surely make it three in a row.
Honorable mentions: Petar Musa (FC Dallas), Rafael Navarro (St. Louis CITY SC)
The data's favorite: Guilherme, Houston Dynamo FC
Second among all Newcomer of the Year nominees in expected goals plus expected assists, Guilherme has an extremely compelling statistical case to land this honor.Â
Add that the only player above him in those rankings is Germán Berterame, who benefits from a stacked Inter Miami attack, and Guilherme’s impact on Houston Dynamo FC looks even stronger. Already among MLS’s goal contribution leaders, the Brazilian is also a brilliant one-v-one dribbler. He ranks in the 93rd percentile among MLS wingers for successful dribbles per 90 minutes, according to FotMob.
Guilherme’s presence on the left wing, and occasionally up top as a striker, has been essential in Houston.
Honorable mentions: Morgan Guilavogui (Real Salt Lake), Timo Werner (San Jose Earthquakes)
The data’s favorite: Cavan Sullivan, Philadelphia Union
Regardless of age, Cavan Sullivan has been among the best players in MLS this season. That he’s managed that feat while topping this year's 22 Under 22 rankings? Yeah, it's easy to see him landing this award.
Among players with at least 1,500 minutes this year, the Philadelphia Union creator ranks eighth in goals added per 96 minutes, as per American Soccer Analysis. He’s also the top Young Player of the Year candidate in the on-ball category for that same goals-added metric. Whether it's visionary passing, frenetic one-v-one dribbling, or strikes on goal, the 17-year-old is wildly difficult to stop in the final third.
Sullivan has already begun to shine with the USMNT, and he’s helped ignite the Union’s historic unbeaten run since the World Cup break. The future is bright, to put it mildly.
Honorable mentions: Peyton Miller (New England Revolution), Hennadii Synchuk (CF Montréal)
The data’s favorite: Tate Johnson, Vancouver Whitecaps FC
We don’t often see fullbacks win Defender of the Year. In recent years, 2024 winner Steven Moreira is the closest we’ve come to seeing an outside back win it. Even then, Moreira was thriving as a right-sided center back in the Columbus Crew’s back three. Still, just because outside backs rarely earn this honor doesn’t mean they shouldn’t.
Tate Johnson has been one of the best pure defensive players in MLS this season – and he has attacking flair, too. According to American Soccer Analysis' defensive net goals added metric, which accounts for both defensive actions and a player's ability to limit opponents without directly intervening, Johnson has been the league's top defender. Holding down the left side of Vancouver’s backline and slowing even some of MLS's best wingers, Johnson would be a worthy winner.
Honorable mentions: Justin Che (Red Bull New York), Lucas Halter (Houston Dynamo FC)
The data’s favorite: Matt Turner, New England Revolution
If you’re looking for the single biggest explanation for how the New England Revolution have risen so quickly in the Eastern Conference, look no further: the answer lies in goal.
Plenty has gone right for New England in 2026 aside from Matt Turner. But he's been essential for Marko Mitrović's side and leads the league in goals prevented. According to American Soccer Analysis, New England’s shot-stopper has saved 12 goals more than expected so far in 2026. Only five goalkeepers have faced more shots than Turner, but none have done more to neutralize those efforts than Turner.
The two-time World Cup veteran's US men’s national team career looks far from over.
Honorable mentions: Brian Schwake (Nashville SC), Andrew Thomas (Seattle Sounders FC)
The data’s favorite: Jesper Sørensen, Vancouver Whitecaps FC
The Whitecaps have flown slightly under the radar this season as Nashville SC push for the single-season points record and St. Louis CITY went on a record unbeaten run. But make no mistake: Jesper Sørensen's Vancouver squad has been downright elite.
Even with Sebastian Berhalter moving to England in the summer window and both Ryan Gauld and Thomas Müller missing time with injury, the Whitecaps lead MLS in expected goal differential, as per American Soccer Analysis. Don’t blink if Vancouver push all the way to MLS Cup and get over the final hurdle this time around.
Honorable mentions: B.J. Callaghan (Nashville SC), Yoann Damet (St. Louis CITY SC)
The data’s favorite: Ryan Gauld, Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Up front: The data can’t account for the various difficulties eligible players face in this category. Still, among the nominees, Ryan Gauld has been the most impactful since returning to action.
After missing more than 500 days of MLS action due to a nagging knee injury, the Scottish playmaker’s return has given Vancouver a big boost. He leads the nominees in this category in both expected goal contributions and goals added, and looks primed to help the Whitecaps make another MLS Cup push.
Honorable mentions: Quinn Sullivan (Philadelphia Union), Eduard Löwen (San Jose Earthquakes)
