Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Atlanta United: What we learned in 2024 & what comes next

24-Season-Review-ATL

Atlanta United were supposed to take a big step forward in 2024. They’d brought back a Best XI-caliber, World Cup-winning No. 10. They’d acclimatized their other DPs. They’d beefed up the midfield and backline with veterans, and brought in competition in goal.

Yet it all fell apart before the summer transfer window even hit. So instead of that big step forward, it was a tear-it-down-to-the-studs type of situation.

In we go:

1
The end of the Pineda era

Gonzalo Pineda was, at one point, the highest-rated MLS assistant – the first name mentioned when folks around the league were debating who should be the next guy to get a seat in the big chair. Ahead of Wilfried Nancy. Ahead of Pat Noonan. Pineda was it.

But, well, the chair in Atlanta turned out to be a little bit too big. Over Pineda’s just-shy-of-three years in charge (108 games across all competitions), they managed just 1.32 points per game. And while the underlying numbers from the first half of this year were pretty good, the results were pretty bad. This was despite keeping Thiago Almada around for what should’ve been his supernova year, and despite having Saba Lobjanidze, Giorgos Giakoumakis and Xande Silva from the jump. There were reinforcements at d-mid and center back, too.

And so the curtain rang down in early June. I can’t say it was the wrong call.

I do think we’ll see Pineda again at some point. But 108 games is a lot, and the 2024 edition of the Five Stripes was going nowhere.

2
The interim era

After the Pineda move, club president/CEO Garth Lagerwey had a decision in front of him: hire a new coach, try to keep the talent together and hope the new guy could craft it into a coherent, winning whole. Or hold the largest stoop sale in MLS history and turn an eye toward 2025.

He chose the latter. The sales of Almada, Giakoumakis and homegrown left back Caleb Wiley reportedly brought in more than $40 million (possibly close to $50 million if all incentives are hit), and long-time VP/technical director Carlos Bocanegra was also shown the door.

Rather than immediately spend that windfall, Lagerwey opted to sit on most of it. DP attacker Alexey Miranchuk was a big summer spend – a reported $12 million, or thereabouts – and left back Pedro Amador (who might be the second coming of Roberto Carlos) arrived for free, but that was it. Atlanta are sitting on a Scrooge McDuck-sized transfer kitty.

There is still no permanent manager to replace Pineda, and still no new GM to replace Bocanegra. Everyone I’ve spoken with around the league thinks the respective new hires will be Jim Curtin (formerly of the Philadelphia Union) and Chris Henderson (still at Inter Miami CF). Well, so do I.

But nothing’s done yet.

3
An upset for the ages

Atlanta’s regular season was forgettable.

Their Audi MLS Cup Playoffs run, meanwhile, will live in club and MLS lore forever. I don’t think we'll see a larger gap than the 34 points that separated Atlanta (40) from Inter Miami (74) in Round One. And we certainly won’t see a bigger upset.

But all us old heads got treated to an out-of-nowhere Brad Guzan masterclass (or, I guess, a series of Brad Guzan masterclasses) and one last ride for the great Dax McCarty.

I honestly should have written this column a month ago. But these guys wouldn’t die.

It was awesome and showed Mercedes-Benz Stadium can still rock if the players on the field can still bring it.

Five Players to Build Around
  • Alexey Miranchuk (AM/W): Gotta tell ya… he wasn’t great. But the hope is that he will be next year with a more coherent team around him.
  • Saba Lobjanidze (W): Has a knack for big goals in big moments.
  • Pedro Amador (LB): This guy is so freaking good. He's one of the best signings of the summer.
  • Stian Gregersen (CB): Mostly struggled in his first MLS year, but had his moments (when he could stay healthy) and is under contract for a long time on a big number.
  • Bartosz Slisz (CM): He mostly struggled, but is on a long-term guaranteed deal.

I’d expect this to be the busiest winter of any club in MLS history, maybe? Within the next few weeks, we’ll see a new GM (Lagerwey is, for all intents and purposes, the CSO) and a new manager. And then we’ll potentially see:

  • Two new DPs.
  • At least two (but possibly three) new U22s.
  • At least one player bought out.
  • Guzan’s option likely picked up.
  • Interest in MLS free agents.
  • At least one big swing on an MLS trade, you’d think?
  • A TAM signing or two?

Looking at that list of five guys above, I wouldn’t bet my life on any of them being starters next year except Amador and Miranchuk (and I’d do so reluctantly with Miranchuk, who was mostly pretty poor). Guys like Guzan and Brooks Lennon were high-level guys in 2024, but they’re not guaranteed to be starters either. Neither is Tristan Muyumba, who I think is quite good when healthy.

The point is, the out-of-nowhere fun of the past month doesn’t paper over the fact that Atlanta could have as many as… seven? eight? More than that? … new guys in the opening-day XI. I’ll be a sport and peg the over/under at 5.5.

So yeah, I’m starting my “Atlanta United won the offseason!” column already. And honest to god, if I’m not feeling the itch to write that by February 1, something’s probably gone wrong.