The 2026 FIFA World Cup draw is set for Friday, Dec. 5 at 12 pm ET in Washington, D.C., giving Canada and the 41 other already-qualified teams their group for next summer's tournament.
Before focus turns to "just beat the team in front of you," each nation is hoping for a dream draw to avoid the "Group of Death" and ease their path into the knockout rounds.
At the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, two of Canada’s groupmates made the semifinals – and the other team was Belgium. They don’t want that again.
This time, with an expanded field of 48 teams instead of 32, let's explore some best and worst draw scenarios that could await the CanMNT.
Before we get into the best and worst-case scenarios, as well as some interesting other options, let’s set some ground rules.
All teams are divided into four different pots, with each group consisting of one team per pot. Teams from the same confederation cannot be in the same group, except for UEFA (Europe), which can have two teams per group. This means Canada won't see another Concacaf team during the group stage.
Also, as a host nation, Canada are in Pot 1, ensuring they cannot be grouped with another Pot 1 team.
Okay, now for the fun part.
- Canada (27th in FIFA Rankings)
- Australia (26th)
- Scotland (36th)
- New Zealand (86th)
There are different theories about the “best group” at the World Cup. Do you want to play only the lowest-ranked teams and risk being caught by surprise in a knockout round, or do you want to test yourself at a winnable level? And how about the opener, which could set the tone for the whole tournament?
If there’s one thing this group would bring, it's a party. Should these four Commonwealth countries be drawn into Group B, Canada would feel pretty good about their odds of advancing.
Les Rouges would open the tournament against New Zealand at Toronto FC's BMO Field and would likely be viewed as the clear favorite, paving the way for a potential celebratory start to the World Cup.
With a UEFA member virtually guaranteed, drawing Scotland may be the best case of the European options remaining. Although Scotland provide a stiff challenge, many fans would rather face them than the high-powered attack of Norway or one of the UEFA playoff threats that lurk in Pot 4.
The group stage finale could prove to be the most difficult test against an Australian side that's been in great form throughout 2025, including a 1-0 win over Canada in an October friendly in Montréal. The Socceroos’ recipe would likely be to rely on a low-block as they did in that friendly, a tactic Canada have struggled against.
Other options
- Canada (27th), Austria (24th), Qatar (51st), Cape Verde (68th)
- Canada (27th), Ecuador (23rd), South Africa (61st), Jordan (66th)
- Canada (27th)
- Morocco (11th)
- Norway (29th)
- Winner of UEFA Playoff A
The CanMNT have never won a World Cup match, and this group could see them continue that tradition while bringing a few months of anxiety as they await Italy or another opponent from the European playoffs (Northern Ireland, Bosnia & Herzegovina or Wales).
The biggest scare for Canada, should they draw the winner of UEFA playoff A, is that Italy would be the nation that they'd open the tournament against. Currently ranked 12th in the world, Italy are still considered one of the top national teams and will be desperate to show that after missing out on the last two World Cups. Couple that with the number of die-hard Azzurri supporters in Toronto, and it could spell trouble for Canada.
Nerves would ease slightly if one of the other three European nations in that playoff were to reach the tournament instead.
Once they passed the opener, the CanMNT would then clash with 2022 World Cup semifinalists, Morocco, and a Norwegian side led by Manchester City’s Erling Haaland and Arsenal's Martin Ødegaard, two of several high-profile names on that squad.
Other options:
- Canada (27th), Colombia (13th), Egypt (34th), Winner of UEFA Playoff D
- Canada (27th), Uruguay (16th), Norway (29th), Ghana (72nd)
Most Familiar Group
- Canada (27th)
- Ecuador (23rd)
- Ivory Coast (42nd)
- Winner of UEFA Playoff B (Ukraine, Sweden, Poland or Albania)
Canada have spent the last two years meticulously planning friendlies to best prepare for the World Cup. Many of those teams have qualified for the tournament as well, giving Canada a potential blueprint for how to approach.
Their best fit from Pot 4 would be Ukraine from UEFA Playoff Path B after beating them 4-2 last June, as well as Ivory Coast from Pot 3, who Canada drew 0-0 the same week. As for a challenging Pot 2 team, Ecuador fits the bill after a 0-0 draw in November.
"Home away from home" group
- Canada (27th)
- Japan (18th)
- Egypt (34th)
- Winner of UEFA Playoff A/B (Italy OR Ukraine)
Given Canada’s multicultural makeup and the number of World Cup fans who travel from across the globe, several matchups could see Canada’s home matches look anything but a sea of red and white in the crowd.
The most “away” groups would likely include Italy or Ukraine from the Pot 4 Playoff Paths in Toronto. For their second and third group games in Vancouver, a heavy Egyptian crowd could be possible, while Pot 2 could be overwhelmed by away support for one of Japan, South Korea or Morocco.
