Once or twice a year, this league provides a weekend of results that are more or less impossible to analyze beyond “vibes, individual match-ups and sometimes ball go in.”
That was the case during Matchday 33.
Here’s a quick rundown of the type of insanity MLS can throw at a guy that virtually nobody else in the world can match:
- The Supporters’ Shield leaders, whose only multi-goal loss of the season came six months ago, went on the road and lost 7-0.
- Columbus, who hadn’t scored multiple goals in a league game in almost two months, went to Atlanta and were up 5-0 inside 40 minutes. They were lucky to win 5-4.
- Minnesota took one shot in the game’s first 73 minutes in San Diego and were barely holding onto a scoreless draw. Then they got two goals in three minutes and went on to win 3-1, with their final goal coming from past the midfield stripe.
- Charlotte tied the league record with their ninth straight win. Over that span, they have a negative expected goals differential. They won just two of 12 before this streak, and had a positive xG differential over those dozen games.
- Four separate games had result-changing goals in the 87th minute or later.
- Four different players scored a hat trick.
We’ve got to start in Charlotte. Away we go:
So about the Crown: that winning streak of theirs, which they extended to nine with a monumental 3-0 win over Inter Miami on Saturday night, equals the post-shootout era record set by Seattle back in 2018. It has largely come out of nowhere – as mentioned above, Charlotte were in brutal shape heading into mid-summer, with just two wins in 12, their star goalkeeper struggling badly and their star No. 9, Patrick Agyemang, sold to English Championship side Derby County.
Three major things have happened since then that turned the season around:
- Kristijan Kahlina got out of his funk and has been the hottest ‘keeper in the league since mid-July.
- Dean Smith moved Tim Ream into the XI at center back, and his quick, accurate distribution from the backline has meant Charlotte get more moments to attack defenses that aren’t set.
- Idan Toklomati won the No. 9 job outright, and he is absolute lightning in transition moments.
As for that last point, it was the main storyline on Saturday night, with Toklomati getting himself his first pro hat-trick largely by finding space and running away from the defenders around him. We saw that on the first goal, which was beautiful, textbook center forward play as he dropped in to hold the ball up with his back to goal, then spun into space and left Sergio Busquets in his wake. Efficient touch-and-move work like that creates downhill momentum, which creates chances.
The second goal, though, might be the best team goal Charlotte’s scored all season:
There are almost too many things to point out here. The one that catches my eye, though, is that Ream skips a line with his distribution, playing directly to Wilfried Zaha as Miami are shifting, which means Zaha’s attacking a backline that's scrambling at least a little bit. This happens in conjunction with Djibril Diani’s completely selfless, sacrificial off-ball run out of central midfield, which leaves Miami scrambling a lot.
That opens the slot for Brandt Bronico (who made the sacrificial off-ball run on Toklomati’s opener), and once again the No. 9’s on his own for a one-time box finish. He’d ultimately complete his hat-trick from the spot in the 84th minute.
“First of all, that is the best moment and best team to play against to score a hat trick,” Toklomati said in the post-game presser about beating a Miami team that not only has the GOAT, but are now officially fighting to stay out of the Wild Card spots (they’re now eighth in the Eastern Conference, though they’ve got plenty of games in hand and are actually third – just ahead of Charlotte – on points per game).
“We are playing well and standing on nine games in a row when we win. I cannot even explain the feeling.”
Of course, none of this would’ve happened if not for Kahlina. The reasons why Charlotte were underperforming their xG numbers to start the season? He was bad – every publicly available model had him as a below-average shot-stopper during the first half of the year.
The reason they’ve been overperforming those numbers since this streak began? He’s been insane – over the past 10 games, he’s been stopping shots at the same rate that got Djordje Petrovic a $20 million move from New England to Chelsea a few years back. American Soccer Analysis has him at +0.54 goals added per 96, which means exactly what it sounds like: He’s been worth more than half a goal per game.
When your goalkeeper’s giving you that, the margin for error suddenly becomes much more substantial.
And so it was in this one. It wasn’t precisely all Miami for the game’s first 30 minutes, but it was more Miami than not, and when Lionel Messi won a PK on the half-hour mark, a 1-0 Herons lead would not have been at all undeserved. The Crown had been having trouble with Miami’s build-out shape (Busquets was dropping deep to split the CBs while both fullbacks pushed up to become attacking wingbacks), and the field was steadily turning pink.
You know what happened on that PK, though. That got the crowd into it, which got the players into it, and within two minutes Toklomati had opened the scoring.
That PK save was one of the most concrete “the match turned right then and there” moments of any game this season. Kahlina’s been piling those up recently.
“I was waiting for him, because normally from the first day when he came in MLS, he's waiting [on] goalkeepers,” Kahlina said of his save. “I was just prepared and ready to wait as long as I can, and thank God that he chose to chip me. It was a nice save, and one big thing for me in my whole life.
“Incredible night for us.”
It's been an incredible two-month stretch, and now Charlotte visit New York City FC next Saturday (12 pm ET | MLS Season Pass) with a chance to claim the record outright.
Miami have won just once in their past five league games. They’ll host the Seattle Sounders on Tuesday (7:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass, Apple TV+) with Leagues Cup revenge on their minds and a desperate need to start collecting points.
Let's give the pen to Armchair Analyst special correspondent Calen Carr, who was on the mic for the Crew’s wild 5-4 win in Atlanta:
Columbus arrived at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and stormed to that first-half lead. Dániel Gazdag’s movement was excellent by staying mostly connected underneath Wessam Abou Ali, while picking the right time to overlap Max Arfsten and find the pockets in the prime assist zones on the edges of the box:
When Atlanta tried to close the space inside, Arfsten (who is clearly carrying confidence from his USMNT performances) got isolated and Andrés Herrera was able to stretch in behind. It had a dizzying effect reminiscent of Columbus at their best, where an array of options is always there and the extra pass seemed to always end up at the feet of Diego Rossi. He completed his first-half hat trick while pulling up a bit and grabbing his hamstring before his easy tap-in. It was that type of day for him (and first 40 minutes for Atlanta).
Injury concerns, though, have become an unfortunate theme for Columbus. While Darlington Nagbe returned to the XI and Mohamed Farsi is close to his return, the big question mark for Columbus is at center back. Rudy Camacho has been gone all year, which meant Sean Zawadzki has been forced into the middle of the backline. Zawadzki, though, picked up a knee injury during training while away during the international window.
Zawadzki's replacement, Yevhen Cheberko, conceded a penalty just before halftime, got beaten in behind and struggled to handle the high-leverage moments this system mandates.
With Zawadzki out between 3-6 weeks, the Crew's center-back group is looking really light at the most important time of the season. Keep an eye on how Columbus handle physicality and box defending. Even if the attack stays humming, it turned what should’ve been an easy ride into Wilfried Nancy nearly pulling his hair out in the dying moments just to hold onto a 5-0 lead.
Ok, it’s Doyle again: I will say I’ve officially lost confidence in the Crew’s defense to the point I don’t really consider them contenders. I wouldn’t be shocked if they won an Audi MLS Cup Playoffs series, or even two.
But four straight series with a defense that can’t do its job in the 18-yard box? That’d be too much to hope for.
Atlanta were officially eliminated from playoff contention with the loss.
13. I’m struggling to find the right words for Evander, who had a goal – nearly eight minutes into eight minutes of second-half stoppage time – and an assist in FC Cincinnati’s playoff-clinching, 2-1 win over visiting Nashville SC on Saturday night.
This is a man who’s vibrating at a higher frequency than anyone else on the pitch:
And this was Cincy just overwhelming what’s usually an excellent defense with their own energy, quality and numbers over the final 15 minutes of the game. You can see it in the video; there are five Cincy attackers in the box, and three more just outside of it. It’s a wild risk to take, but the Garys have so much talent they’re almost better when they’re throwing caution to the wind like that instead of trying to control the game.
Cincy are once again just two points back in the Shield race. Nashville, meanwhile, are just about out of it with five losses in their past six.
The good news for the ‘Yotes? They’ve still got eyes on the US Open Cup, and their weekend was a heck of a lot better than Philly’s – who they’re hosting in the semis on Tuesday.
12. Orlando will be very upset with themselves for taking only a 1-1 draw at D.C. United, despite playing the final 35-plus minutes up a man. The Black-and-Red did a good job of packing the box (and Jackson Hopkins is turning into a true silver lining), but the Lions couldn’t generate anything following Alex Freeman’s equalizer.
“I feel like sometimes we’re up a man and it’s a tied game or we’re losing, it’s our trigger to just go and just shoot or pass, whatever we need,” Freeman said when asked about playing so long 11-v-10. “But I feel like in those situations, make them tired, you know?
“[We need to] be able to run them down and then be able to attack.”
11. St. Louis went to Montréal and earned their 2-0 win in a Wooden Spoon race six-pointer.
10. Robin Fraser’s finally playing the kids (and José Cifuentes, who made his first start), who were mostly good and fun in Toronto's 1-1 draw at the Revs. With the result, TFC are officially eliminated from playoff contention.
9. A club-record crowd turned out at Levi's Stadium to see the Earthquakes – really, to watch the guy they were playing – and weren’t disappointed, as Son Heung-Min scored inside of 60 seconds and LAFC rattled off a ridiculously fun and open 4-2 win over San Jose:
Son’s reputation as a guy who plays the game with infectious joy has certainly traveled, and while I haven’t entirely buried my concerns about his fit with Denis Bouanga (who bagged himself a hat trick), I’m about 90 percent of the way there.
Why not 100 percent? First, because LAFC have won just twice in their past seven. And second, because almost nobody in the league gives opposing attackers as much space as San Jose do (the “fun and ridiculously open” part, right?). Bruce Arena’s been trying to solve it all year long and has mostly been unable to.
The Quakes are still ninth in the Western Conference on 35 points, but the two teams directly behind them (Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas) have two games and one game, respectively, in hand.
8. RSL did what they needed in taking a 2-1 home win over visiting Sporting KC, with both goals coming off big, right-to-left crosses in transition.
Sporting, of course, have let everyone they’ve faced get out in transition, so it made sense for RSL to go to a 4-4-2, invite the visitors upfield and play in transition. I am curious to see if they’ll try to repeat that trick when LAFC visit midweek (doubt it).
- Eric Quill was clever in shifting his team into a 3-5-2 with Shaq Moore as an inverted left center back. That cleared out the entire left side for Bernard Kamungo, who honestly had his best game in two years.
- Since transferring Lucho Acosta to Fluminense, forwards Petar Musa and Logan Farrington have shared much of the creative heavy lifting. If I were a Dallas fan, the No. 1 thing I’d like to see is those guys starting up top together for the rest of the season.
Farrington gets our Pass of the Week here:
6. Portland took care of business with a 2-1 win over visiting RBNY, creating constant danger in transition by getting their wingers to the back post. That’s how Antony got the winner midway through the second half, just after Emil Forsberg had equalized for the Red Bulls.
As such, it was a nearer-run thing than head coach Phil Neville wanted it to be, or that he felt it should’ve been.
"I think we can play miles better,” Neville told the press afterwards. “I think our levels can be better. If we go into halftime up 3-0, we win that game easily. We have to turn into a team that's ruthless."
5. Remember when Colorado were Set Piece FC? They ran it back on Saturday night, with Cole Bassett scoring on a kiiiind of direct free kick for the opener, then forcing a late own goal on a corner for the 2-1 win over visiting Houston.
Paxten Aaronson celebrating like he scored it (more of a No. 9’s reaction than a No. 10’s) would usually be our Face of the Week, but we’ve got an even better one coming later:
Aaronson’s yet to register a goal or assist since joining the Rapids, but he’s been super dangerous. I’m reassessing my priors.
Colorado aren't safe yet, but these points were huge. Houston aren't cooked yet, but the dropped points – and Artur’s late red card – were huge. It’s probably a must-win for them when they host Portland next weekend.
4. Seattle suffered what I think was a Leagues Cup hangover, as they never quite got out of third gear at home against the Galaxy and thus only managed a 2-2 draw. They’ve still lost just once in league play since the Club World Cup, but they also haven’t managed to win two in a row.
The good news: they got two DPs back, as Albert Rusnák and Jordan Morris came off the bench. They’ll be fine and are one of the obvious favorites in the West. But it’s much easier to win the conference when you’ve got home-field advantage, and when you avoid LAFC in Round One (as it stands, that’s the 4 vs. 5 matchup).
3. This is as good a team goal as I’ve seen in MLS this year:
NYCFC are capable of exactly that, but they also scored off a set piece and then a late, opportunistic capper on the break for the 3-1 victory at Chicago – a result that almost certainly punches their playoff ticket, and leaves them within touching distance of the top four.
The Fire are a fun team, but one that has a habit of being slow in rotation behind the ball (as you can see above), and soft in the moments that matter. They remain ninth in the East, and their remaining schedule is tough. They are fortunate that 10th-place RBNY’s remaining schedule is a little bit tougher.
2. Here’s what I tweeted 70 minutes into Minnesota's 3-1 win at San Diego, as I was cataloging the absurdities of the night’s action:
Dayne St. Clair won’t win Player of the Matchday – not when four different guys scored a hat trick – but he probably should, because he was the difference between this being a stalemate there for the taking and a 3-0 walkover for the hosts. He was awesome and the Loons are up to second in the West, just two points behind SDFC.
As for the game itself, it was exactly what you think: San Diego had 61 percent of the ball and were determined to win the game with it, while Minnesota were determined to win the game on counters, set pieces and St. Clair. The Loons had the better formula on the night (and they even got a ridiculous debut goal from Nectarios Triantis for their troubles).
Bigger picture, I have to wonder if San Diego would take a do-over on the Milan Iloski deal if offered one right now. Since his loan got mutually terminated in mid-July, SDFC’s center forwards have scored one goal in nine league games and two in 12 games across all competitions. They are pretty clearly missing the third attacking heat that Iloski provided.
1. And finally, this is obviously our Face of the Week:
Did Philly head coach Bradley Carnell rotate his squad ahead of Tuesday's US Open Cup semifinal? Yes. Did that set the table for Vancouver's dominance, specifically with how Ali Ahmed targeted poor Alejandro Bedoya (not a right back!) again and again in isolation? Of course.
Still, this was a terrifying display of firepower from the hosts, who, it should be pointed out, were without Brian White and are still without Ryan Gauld. Yet they repeatedly broke Philly’s press and got their wide players into isolation, and have now scored 10 goals in Thomas Müller’s two starts (with Müller himself having a hand in five of them).
Even with the hat trick and the 7-0 result, Müller still wants more.
“We can trust sometimes a little bit more, be a little bit more brave in some situations, especially with the ball, but also sometimes without the ball, to get to the pressing, with a hundred percent, don’t hold back, don’t do a step back. And I think we get, step by step, closer to being even more decisive and more dangerous,” he said in the post-game presser, before breaking into a smile.
“But it’s easy to say after such a win, to be honest.”
With the way the remaining schedule shakes out, Vancouver might actually be the Supporters' Shield favorites. But let’s reassess after we see what progress their injured cohort makes, and how they handle their midweek Canadian Championship business.
