As another MLS regular season rounds to a close and Decision Day (Oct. 18) fast approaches, now is a good time to check in and see what’s on the radar over the next two-plus weeks. These will decide how 2025 is remembered, for posterity’s sake.
Let’s jump in.
I didn’t vote Lionel Messi for Landon Donovan MLS MVP last year. Yes, he was the best player. Yes, he added the most cumulative value if you look at data like American Soccer Analysis’s goals added (G+) metric. And yes, Inter Miami won the Supporters’ Shield.
But he played fewer than 1,500 minutes! I’m sorry, that’s not enough. The rule is technically that they've got to play 1,000 minutes in the regular season, but I’ve got it in my head that the cut-off is 2,000 minutes (which is about two-thirds of the season). I couldn’t break my own rule, even for the GOAT. Especially not when Miami had just about the exact same points per game with him as without him in 2024.
No such worries this year. He crested 2,000 regular-season minutes on the weekend, and he’s again the best player in the league (duh), currently atop the Golden Boot presented by Audi race, second in total assists, third in primary assists, and first in total goal contributions. That last one is by a lot.
Also, there’s simply no argument that Miami have been as good without him in 2025: as of this writing, they're 2W-2L-2D when he doesn’t play, which is 1.33 ppg. When he does suit up, the number jumps to almost 2.00 ppg. That’s the difference between 10th in the Eastern Conference and raising the Shield. That is the definition of “value.”
Anders Dreyer, Evander, Denis Bouanga, even Martín Ojeda… these guys are incredible, and in normal years they’d be in the running.
This year, they’re fighting for second. Even though Messi just picked the absolute worst time to go two straight regular-season games without a goal since April, my vote’s already decided, and I’ll bet I’m not the only one.
I’ll be shocked if Messi doesn't become the first back-to-back MVP in league history.
Messi’s in the lead, as I mentioned above, with 24 goals. He’s also got a higher goals/90 than the other two guys still plausibly in the hunt: Bouanga and Nashville SC’s Sam Surridge, who’s spent most of the year in the lead.
Of the two, Bouanga has the clearer path to the top spot since:
- He’s got four games left to play (though he’ll likely miss two of them on World Cup qualifying duty with Gabon).
- He’s on 23 goals, just one behind Messi.
- He’s been a house afire with nine goals in his past five games.
Alas, that parenthetical in point No. 1 above… tough to get past it. So my guess is Messi grabs the Golden Boot as well.
Still, the door is open. And with Miami suddenly all but out of the Shield race, maybe Messi rests one of these games?
This past weekend, I thought I got out over my skis a little bit in all but congratulating the Philadelphia Union for winning the Shield… nope. With Miami’s collapse on Tuesday against Chicago, it would take a lot for them to fall short. Just win one of their final two games and it’s theirs:
- Philly would be on 66 points with a win in either game.
- Vancouver could win out and match that point total, but Philly would hold the first tiebreaker, which is wins.
- After Tuesday’s loss, Miami’s max points total is 65.
So yeah, the Union can wrap it up this weekend when they host New York City FC (7:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass).
Now, it’s not entirely out of the question that Philly faceplant. They’ve only been ok against the league’s better teams, going just 7W-6L-3D against current playoff sides, and both of their final two games (vs. NYCFC this weekend, then at Charlotte on Decision Day) are against teams that have already clinched postseason berths. Beyond that, they’ve only got one win all year against teams that were in the top four of either conference at the time that Philly played them.
It was a 1-0 result vs. Cincy last month. They followed that up by getting stuffed in a locker by a combined 10-1 against Vancouver and Nashville in their subsequent two games. Going into this weekend, NYCFC sit third in the East. This is not a gimme in any way, shape or form.
Still, I have a hard time imagining anyone but the Union hoisting that Shield. It’s been all gas, no brakes all year, and that’s how you win the thing. Job well (almost) done.
San Diego have led most of the past few months and are atop the conference on 57 points, holding the first tiebreaker (wins) over Vancouver. But the Whitecaps are fractionally ahead on points per game because they have a game in hand. And they're unbeaten in six, with two of their remaining three games at home. On the other hand, San Diego have lost two of three and will spend their final 180 minutes of the year on the road.
The problem for Vancouver is they’re missing three-fourths of their starting backline for at least the rest of the regular season, and their cadre of brilliant veteran attackers (Thomas Müller, Brian White and especially Ryan Gauld) have all missed time (lots and lots of time in Gauld’s case, though he might finally return this weekend) via injury.
Plus, they're playing the Canadian Championship final on Wednesday night. Will there be a hangover?
Minnesota are technically still in the race, but they can tell you all about post-tournament hangovers because the wind completely went out of their sails following a devastating US Open Cup semifinal loss against Austin a couple of weeks back. They don't look like a team about to win out and make it interesting, even if their final two games (hosting Sporting KC this weekend, then at the Galaxy on Decision Day) seem to be inviting them to do exactly that.
Know who looks like they could win out and make it interesting? LAFC. Since Son Heung-Min arrived, they’ve pretty clearly been the best team in the Western Conference. And while part of that is them facing a schedule that’s not exactly murderer’s row, the rest of their schedule is… not exactly murderer’s row.
They’ve got four games left, and I think they’ll be favored to win all four. But Son and Bouanga will likely be on international duty for half of them, so… now would be a good time for Jeremy Ebobisse to become a club legend and David Martínez to come good on his lofty potential.
As it stands, Vancouver’s 66 points are the highest total anyone in the conference can reach. But if LAFC take 12 points from their final four games, they’ll be just behind them at 65. Neither San Diego (63) nor Minnesota (61) can hit that.
Eastern Conference
The Red Bulls officially became toast on Tuesday night, which means we know the nine East teams who have made the postseason. What’s still up in the air is the order, as Chicago climbed past Columbus into eighth, and it's not at all unreasonable for them to think they can climb even higher.
That's because the badly listing Crew are at Orlando on Saturday in a true six-pointer (7:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass). Win that and then suddenly Columbus have a chance to pull themselves out of Wild Card purgatory, and maybe even higher if sixth-place Nashville and/or fifth-place Charlotte fall on their faces. And if the Fire keep winning – they have Toronto and New England left – well, I can see a world where they climb as high as fifth. It’s not likely, but it’s there.
What's likely, of course, is Columbus finish ninth while the Fire and Orlando battle to stay out of the Wild Card spot. Nashville and Charlotte probably stay above the fray, but don’t crack the top four.
But this is MLS, so everything about the above scenario could end up wrong. Strange things happen.
Western Conference
For evidence of that, look at the West race: I think it’s pretty clear that FC Dallas in 10th and Real Salt Lake in 11th are better-positioned than 8th-place Colorado and 9th-place San Jose, because Dallas and RSL have easier (though not “easy”) schedules and each hold a game in hand.
Let’s start with the big one: RSL host Colorado on Saturday, and no matter what happens in the other games, if RSL win that one, then they jump the Rapids in the standings. That could put them as high as eighth, should San Jose (at Vancouver) and Dallas (home vs. the Galaxy) both lose.
But if both those teams win, RSL will have faced the 8th-place team, beaten them, jumped them in the standings, and… would still be below the playoff line. That’s insanity.
The overall takeaway is there are four teams for two spots (sorry, 12th-place Houston; I’m not including you, your season’s done), and all four are probably playing must-win games this weekend. It’s like a mini-Decision Day before Decision Day proper.
There's no real chance that any of these teams climb above the Wild Card fray, for what it’s worth. We’re talking Wild Card or bust for all of them.
Goalkeeper of the Year
I think Dayne St. Clair’s got this one wrapped up. Among all the goakeepers with a reasonable sample size he’s at or near the top of the heap in the traditional stats normies like (total saves, save percentage, clean sheets) and is at or near the top of the more advanced stuff (ASA’s G+, FBRef’s post-shot xG-Goals Allowed) the nerds like, all while Minnesota have out-performed expectations in a way that hack columnists (me) value highly.
That’s triangulation, folks. Something crazy would have to happen for me to change the geometry on this one.
Defender of the Year
I’m leaning towards Michael Boxall, not only because Minnesota’s been very good defensively – by both the advanced and boxscore numbers, they have one of the best defenses in the league – but because Boxall’s long throws have been intrinsic to the Loons’ overall identity. Stylistically, it’s 180 degrees from what the Crew were last year. But in terms of impact within the system, you could argue Boxall is actually more valuable than what Steven Moreira provided Columbus, and I gladly voted for Moreira last season.
Also on the radar is Alex Freeman, who’s been such a weapon pushing forward from “right back” (yes, those are air quotes) that Oscar Pareja overhauled Orlando’s system. And Freeman’s been worth it, as he’s one of their top goalscorers and chance creators.
The issue is, he’s even less of a defender than most modern fullbacks. So I’d understand folks not wanting to vote for him.
The final choice I’d strongly consider is Tristan Blackmon, who’s been excellent individually as part of one of the best units in the league… that remained one of the best units in the league even as every reliable piece around him got injured and fell out of the lineup.
Alas, that injury list eventually included Blackmon himself. And Vancouver, of course, just kept on being excellent defensively, which takes some of the starch out of his argument.
Coach of the Year
Did I mention how the Whitecaps kept being excellent defensively without Blackmon and two of their other three starting defenders? Also, how they made a finals run in one competition (Concacaf Champions Cup) that usually spells regular-season doom, are probably about to win another (Canadian Championship), and have done so mostly without a guy (Gauld) we all thought was irreplaceable? All while playing stylish, two-way ball and developing a bunch of young and young-ish players?
I’d vote for this San Diego's Mikey Varas season during probably 27 other years in MLS history. In 2025, I’m almost certainly voting for Vancouver's Jesper Sørensen.
Will Dreyer reach 20 assists?
It’s only happened three other times: Carlos Valderrama with a record 26 back in 2000, my colleague Sacha Kljestan with 20 back in 2016, and Maxi Moralez with 20 in 2019. Hitting 20 is not the mark of a great year, but an absolutely legendary one.
Dreyer is on 18. Two games left. Two assists needed from San Diego's No. 10.
Can Messi reach 40 goal contributions?
As I write this on Tuesday afternoon, Messi’s on 38 (24g/14a) and Miami are 45 minutes away from kicking off against the Fire.
I bet he’s on 40 before we publish on Wednesday morning. Editors, I demand you leave this in!
EDIT: This is me three hours later.
Anyway, Carlos Vela (49 in 2019) is the only player in league history with 40+ goal contributions in a single season. I will be shocked if Messi doesn’t get there, too.
Back-to-back 60+ point seasons?
Believe it or not, it’s only ever been done once: by Pareja’s excellent FC Dallas teams of a decade back, when they finished second in the Shield race on 60 points in 2015, and then won it with 60 points in 2016.
Both Miami and LAFC can get there this year. I’d frankly be surprised if they didn’t.
Of course, that’s exactly what I was saying about Cincy around 12 months ago, but they managed to take just three of the final 12 points on offer. They looked directly into the eyes of history and noped out.
As I’ve pointed out repeatedly, strange things can and do happen in this league of ours, which is part of the charm. Just two full weekends left, so let’s all keep watching, shall we?
