They’re still singing in Columbus after adding a third star above their crest. Deservedly so, too: The Crew capped the 2023 season by raising MLS Cup presented by Audi over LAFC, a 2-1 result for the hosts.
Yet the page turns quickly. The 2024 campaign is only two months away and the question shifts towards who will end MLS’ 29th season by winning it all.
Plenty will change in the months ahead – several clubs need to hire head coaches, the transfer market rigmarole awaits and, given the league’s parity-centric structure, our understanding of contenders is bound to change a half-dozen times before next winter. Nonetheless, we’re taking a way-too-early stab at 10 teams – five from the Eastern Conference, five from the Western Conference – who could lead the title chase next year.
Before diving in, let’s recognize an honorable mention quartet: Atlanta United, Houston Dynamo FC, Philadelphia Union and Sporting Kansas City.
Revenge can be a powerful motivator; might FC Cincinnati channel that emotion during the playoffs vs. Columbus Crew after seeing this year’s Eastern Conference Final slip away against their bitter Hell is Real rival? I’m, candidly, rooting for that rematch in ‘24.
Now, that’s complicated by how the club might lose striker Brandon Vazquez and left wingback Álvaro Barreal to Europe-bound transfers this winter. But I’m not questioning GM Chris Albright’s ability to find top-notch replacements, nor reigning MVP Luciano Acosta’s capacity to put this team on his back through ups and downs, nor head coach Pat Noonan’s propensity for molding a group that’s simultaneously entertaining and pragmatic.
What does give me some pause is knowing the 2023 MLS Supporters’ Shield winners are making their Concacaf Champions Cup debut in February. If they go on a deep continental run (as they’re fully capable of), they wouldn’t be the first club to see MLS form suffer amid the pursuit of regional glory/a FIFA Club World Cup spot.
The MLS Cup 2023 champs didn’t return to the mountaintop by luck, happenstance or a fluky play. No, they were outright dominant during long stretches of the season and deserved lifters of the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy at Lower.com Field.
Plenty of (digital) ink has been spilled on head coach Wilfried Nancy’s brilliance, and we’ll add a bit more. The Frenchman is both a professor and a motivator, able to inspire and lead. It’s truly special to watch his bold, attacking idealogy come to life on the pitch, even if the game model’s brashness and inventiveness challenge conventional wisdom about how this sport of ours typically gets played. A fullback-turned-center back playing as a quasi-No. 8? Why not. A striker masquerading as a winger and attacking midfielder, both orchestrating and finishing plays? Yes, please.
As long as Nancy is at the wheel, and partnerships like Cucho Hernández/Diego Rossi and Darlington Nagbe/Aidan Morris are cornerstones, there’s every reason to think Columbus can repeat.
I don’t envy the position co-president and GM John Thorrington is in right now, staring down a long list of free agents. For those counting at home, five players from their MLS Cup 2023 starting XI could leave the club this winter: Carlos Vela, Kellyn Acosta, Diego Palacios and Maxime Crépeau are all out of contract, while Giorgio Chiellini has retired. And there’s how Dénis Bouanga, the reigning Golden Boot presented by Audi winner who just equaled the MLS calendar-year goals record, said it’s “a possibility” he returns to Europe this winter (for the record, I don’t think he leaves unless an eye-popping transfer offer arrives – we’re talking $20-25+ million).
It’s a full plate and then some.
But I’m also confident Thorrington and his staff will navigate these decisions and assemble a championship-contending squad. They have one of the best success rates league-wide on international and domestic signings, and the club’s a highly desirable destination on the transfer market. They could have two open DP slots to fill (depending on Vela’s status) this winter/summer as well, and their calendar’s more simplified in ‘24 without Concacaf Champions Cup play.
Understandably, it’s hard for LAFC fans to see the promised land after the club lost three finals in ‘23. But it’s out there, and doubling down on the Black & Gold brass finding solutions is usually a good position to take.
The Galaxy have two open DP spots to cook with alongside Riqui Puig, who’s one of the most talented players in MLS. Striker and winger are two positions/profiles to pursue post-Chicharito and Douglas Costa, and newly-appointed GM Will Kuntz, during an interview with _The Athletic_, has hinted those targets will be younger than in years past.
I’m also trusting LA won’t have such rotten injury luck as they did throughout 2023. They were missing seven locked-in starters at one point! Not even the best MLS teams can withstand being without that much talent.
Plenty also hinges on the Galaxy getting their signings right and patching their shutout-adverse backline (I’ve got a lot of stock in Jalen Neal and Julián Aude leveling up next year). But the thought of them rebounding from 26th place in the overall league table – the group, to their credit, never looked completely crestfallen – isn’t as far-fetched as you might think.
The ball is placed, some 25 yards from goal. Anticipation hums at DRV PNK Stadium as the final seconds of second-half stoppage time wind down. Lionel Messi is lining up a patented left-footed free kick, searching for the ball's sweet spot and readying to paint a match-winning picture. The GOAT runs up and, as if time slows down, curls his shot into the top corner past the goalkeeper’s outstretched arms. He wheels away to celebrate in the corner flag, first with his teammates and then with his family. An all-time MLS moment is born.
Fanciful writing aside – sounds an awful lot like his debut vs. Cruz Azul in Leagues Cup, huh? – it would be quite the scene to watch Leo And Friends lift an MLS Cup trophy. For one, I’m not counting out what he, Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba and reportedly (not yet confirmed) Luis Suárez can pull off with a full, globe-trotting preseason under their belt.
Now, let’s just see if head coach Tata Martino can strike the right balance between attack and defense. And what contributions they get from a supporting cast that includes Benjamin Cremaschi, Facundo Farías, Leo Campana and more.
Maybe I’ll look a fool for talking myself into believing New York City FC are on the precipice of returning to MLS Cup contention. But I would present how the 2021 champs essentially fielded a U-23 lineup for most of last season and were solid down the stretch (4W-1L-3D) once mid-summer signings got settled, no longer fighting an uphill battle after not replacing key players in the winter transfer window.
That youthful bunch, logically, should only improve. Specifically, I think there’s a $20 million winger somewhere in Talles Magno’s jogo bonito boots. And James Sands is among the best No. 6s in the league. And Julián Fernández and Mounsef Bakrar, their U22 Initiative newcomers, can hit the ground running next February. Heck, even that Matt Freese can elevate into a top-five goalkeeper in MLS. And Santi Rodríguez can become a 20-25 goal contribution guy.
This team still needs some veteran leadership and probably two more high-impact signings (plus CB depth). But the core’s in place and primed to prove 2023 was an anomaly, not a new trend.
Much of this hinges on Oscar Pareja returning as head coach (current reports indicate that he will).
If that comes through, there's every reason to believe Orlando will build on their best-ever MLS season – beyond just reaching a fifth straight postseason. They were runners-up in the Supporters' Shield race, tallying 63 points behind a club-best +16 goal differential. And much of their core roster is back, sans captain Mauricio Pereyra, while center back Antônio Carlos will reportedly be transferred to Brazil.
But, as my esteemed colleague Matt Doyle noted, the factor separating Orlando from a good team to a great one might be a difference-making No. 10, the type who likely commands a sizable transfer fee. If they had a Carles Gil-type player on their 2023 squad, would MLS Cup have been held last weekend at Exploria Stadium? I think so.
A few other factors to consider are 1) if Facundo Torres gets sold, 2) if Martín Ojeda increases his production during his second season and 3) if Duncan McGuire keeps developing into a 15+ goalscorer. But these are largely good questions to navigate, and plenty of clubs would love to be in Orlando's position.
If I'm guilty of being an optimist, so be it. I really like the Timbers' core roster and can envision a world where the 2015 champs are having an MLS Cup parade this time next year.
For some highlights: Juan David Mosquera and Claudio Bravo are dependable, attack-minded fullbacks. Evander should be even better during his second season in the Rose City. Santiago Moreno and Antony are live-wires in the final third. Felipe Mora is a solid veteran striker. Zac McGraw is on upward trend at center back.
Several decisive questions need answering, you'd rightly note. Will Diego Chara continue to defy Father Time? Can new head coach Phil Neville turn things upstream? What about that open DP spot (potentially two if Yimmi Chara departs)? Will Eryk Williamson and David Ayala be their old selves upon returning from an ACL tear?
Taking the glass-half-full approach, GM Ned Grabavoy has room to improve the roster this winter. And when the dust settles, Portland very well could be in the mix.
Seattle return everyone from their league-best defense that allowed just 32 goals this past season. Stef Frei is coming off a career-best 14 clean sheets. Alex Roldan and Nouhou, full-fledged internationals, are two of the best fullbacks in the league. Jackson Ragen and Yeimar forged an elite relationship at center back. Then there’s, of course, João Paulo anchoring the deep-lying midfield.
In shorter terms, a championship-quality foundation is in place.
Here’s the wild card: Seattle scored only 41 goals this year, which is bottom-third across the league. Jordan Morris was their leading scorer with 11 goals, one shy of equaling his career-best total, but nobody else approached double-digits.
Add in how Nicolás Lodeiro has officially departed the club, and the final-third formula will look different for the Sounders. If he can stay healthy and available, Raúl Ruidíaz (current reporting indicates he’ll be back) might provide some answers. So might Lanús attacker Pedro de la Vega, who will reportedly join this winter as a DP. Another final-third piece (No. 9 depth) seems necessary, too.
Let’s see what GM Craig Waibel has up his sleeve.
Let’s outline two scenarios:
- The underlying numbers, those suggesting St. Louis overperformed in 2023, evolve from an analytics-centric talking point into a codified, can’t-deny storyline. We’re referencing how goalkeeper Roman Bürki posted a league-best 11.08 goals prevented (per TruMedia via StatsPerform). And how, per Opta, they scored 19.11 goals more than the expected goals suggested they would (64 goals; 44.89 xG).
- Those who doubt St. Louis, like they did last preseason, look dumb at season’s end when they’re raising MLS Cup.
I believe, like most things in life, the truth lands somewhere in the middle. St. Louis, amid a historic expansion debut, showed signs of regressing to the mean (I know, everyone’s favorite phrase) – or at least losing some ruthlessness – after clinching the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed and as the calendar flipped to October. That Round One playoff exit to newfound Midwest rival Sporting KC will sting for a long time, too.
But we, in the media, all learned our lesson. St. Louis, with clarity in vision from sporting director Lutz Pfannenstiel and head coach Bradley Carnell, have a distinct style of play that can be mighty effective in MLS. And, if injuries didn’t limit DP striker João Klauss to ~1,300 regular-season minutes (with a team-leading 10g/4a), we’re probably reflecting on a 60+ point team.
St. Louis won’t sneak up on anybody in 2024 and have to juggle their first foray into the Concacaf Champions Cup. Like most teams, they need some reinforcements this winter as well (will they utilize that open DP spot?). Yet they’ve earned a place in the MLS Cup contender camp until proven otherwise.
