We are getting down to the bitter end here, and we know these teams head to toe now. Let’s dive in:
You’ll want to tune into Instant Replay to get Andrew Wiebe’s analysis of the not-actually-that-controversial calls that were the talk of this game. As for what we saw on the field…
A couple of weeks ago I made the point that, more important for Nashville than an Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs push would be Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge, two attacking DPs who are under contract for big money for the next several years – and thus won’t be moved along out of Nashville unless something entirely unforeseen happens – showing some chemistry.
Over the past two games, Surridge has scored three goals. Two of them have been off direct assists from Hany. The third, which was the opener in this one – a 2-2 home draw against FC Cincinnati – came from Surridge finishing off a break Hany started:
Hany, with a goal and two assists in his past three games, is playing his best ball in about 15 months. Surridge is playing his best ball since his arrival, finally looking comfortable as a true No. 9. Jonathan Pérez, on loan from the Galaxy (Nashville hold an option to acquire him on a permanent deal that I will be shocked if they don’t exercise), has a bit of extra spice in an attack that had been moribund until this month.
“I thought from a game plan standpoint, the guys did a great job of executing and communicating and being committed through that, and adjusting and adapting on the fly,” is how head coach B.J. Callaghan described his team’s effort, which included playing out of a semi-unfamiliar 3-4-2-1 (or 3-4-1-2; there was a lot of flexibility in it). “But, you know, I thought there were enough opportunities out there.
“I mean, we were able to score two, gave up two, and we're probably both saying that we should have scored one or two more each.”
Nashville weren’t playing games like this a month ago. They, like CF Montréal and Atlanta and D.C. and Philly and so many other teams in the Eastern Conference that had spent 2024 mostly dead, are very much alive. I really like the way they’ve played the past few weeks, even if the results didn’t start coming until the past few games.
As for Cincinnati, this was obviously not a great result for them given the death race they’re in for that second seed in the East. They definitely do not want to have to go to Columbus in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, but it certainly seems like that’s where it’s pointed at the moment.
The issue is the injuries and varying forms of squad rotation Pat Noonan has been forced into since June. Lucho Acosta and Luca Orellano are talented enough to brute force a point or three against most opponents (as they did in this one), but it’s the last week of September, we still don’t know their best XI, and the defense has still not quite managed to right the ship.
They have the pieces to win an MLS Cup. Noonan’s still got to figure out exactly how they fit.
The big winners out of the Western Conference scrum were the Dynamo, who went to Austin and took all three points with a 1-0 win while seeing everybody else (except Colorado) in that 2-through-8 race drop points. So now Houston are up to fifth, just three points behind second-place RSL and four points ahead of eighth-place Portland.
In some ways, it was a vintage performance from the Dynamo, who had over 50% possession and got a late Coco Carrasquilla bike to win it. But in other ways…
Well, I guess that’s kinda vintage Dynamo, too. When they’re subpar, there’s too much of this and not enough of the final third Jogo Benito that’s defined this team over the past 15 months or so. This is, perhaps, a casualty of Héctor Herrera’s balky hamstring, which is expected to keep him out another couple of weeks. Ben Olsen can move Carrasquilla inside as a No. 8 and you don’t lose much at that spot – Coco is arguably a better player than Herrera right now – but the knock-on is you’re going to end up with a right “winger” who plays nothing like Coco, and when the parts aren’t aligned, the gears tend to jam a little bit.
They were, in short, kind of lucky to get all three, and will have to play much better next weekend at Seattle in a game that’ll go a long way toward determining whether either can sneak into the conference’s top four and get home-field advantage in Round One of the playoffs.
“When we first started here, this was the plan. The plan was to reset and build something that is sustainable. It was not just to have a year where we win a trophy and go to the Western Conference Final,” Olsen said afterward. “We have to sustain that success to show that we are worth this project.
“That starts with qualifying for the playoffs again. It’s nice to have these little checks, but we will forget about them tomorrow because we know we have Seattle next, and we are not in the playoffs [yet]. We have to keep pushing.”
Austin have played well since Leagues Cup finished, and it mostly hasn’t mattered because of their roster’s overall talent deficit. Between this loss and Minnesota’s win at Kansas City, the book’s just about closed on their 2024 season.
12. I don’t usually pay attention to FotMob ratings, but I saw it going around social media that Lionel Messi had his worst performance as a Miami player as per the FotMob scorecard and, well, that matched the eye test from Miami’s 1-1 draw in the Bronx. Messi was as guilty as anyone else in that Herons' midfield for the bushels of sloppy touches and no-pressure miscontrols that kept gifting the Pigeons possession. Even though he picked up an assist on Miami’s only goal, the GOAT was… bad.
So the 1-1, which came via a James Sands header at the death (his first-ever regular-season goal), was deserved. I’ll let you all decide if this tifo was:
I’ll just say that as a former MetroStars fan who was there when the Galaxy’s David Beckham brought 67,000 to old Giants Stadium, I think I know how those folks in sky blue felt. I also, as a lapsed Metro fan, know how a nine-game winless skid feels.
The Herons, with four games left, are back under the record points pace the Revs set in 2021. Three wins ties the mark of 73. Anything better than that, and it’s theirs. But it feels a bit like they’re backing into it at this point.
11. The only team who could catch Miami are the Crew, who held on for a wild and entertaining 4-3 win over visiting Orlando City.
For the most part, this was a typical Columbus game. But two related notes:
- Wilfried Nancy has continued to rotate the squad, resting each of Cucho Hernández and Diego Rossi for a half while Rudy Camacho and Sean Zawadzki both got the full game off.
- Even with all the recent squad rotation, the Crew still wilted down the stretch, as all three Orlando goals and something like 85% of their total xG came over the final 15 minutes (at which point it was already 3-0 Crew).
They play for a trophy on Wednesday, hosting Campeones Cup against a Club América side that have started to turn it around after a tough start to the LIGA MX Apertura. We shall see.
Orlando, by the way, are probably the fourth-best team in the East. But even with a respectable-on-paper one-goal loss, the game’s first 70 minutes showed the gap between the East’s lead pack and the peloton.
10. The Red Bulls are technically part of that peloton, and finished the week in fourth place – a point ahead of Orlando. But following their 2-2 home draw with the Five Stripes, they’re now 2W-3L-9D in league play since Emil Forsberg’s last start back on June 1. It has been the same story for the entire summer.
Atlanta tried to change their story as Rob Valentino threw a 3-5-2 at RBNY in the first half, then switched to more of a 4-2-3-1 in the second half with youngster Luke Brennan coming on at the wing. I was gonna say it kind of worked, in a way, but then I read this quote from Valentino:
"It wasn't working," Valentino said. "The first half, we're seeing too much pressure in the wide areas, so I thought we could get back into our normal shape to put more pressure there."
Ok, fair enough.
RBNY had their chances to win the game, but they all came during the tactics-free zone at the end – Atlanta don’t have the midfield talent to exert control and prevent any game, let alone one vs. the Red Bulls, from entering the tactics-free zone – at which point a penalty save from Brad Guzan, a banger from Edwin Mosquera, and then an equalizer at the death from Elias Manoel all just kinda happened, untethered from the context of what came before.
It was a fair result and one that speaks exactly to the lack of match-winning talent on both of these rosters.
9. There hasn’t been much to be happy about in Montréal this year, but following a pretty thorough 2-0 home win over the Fire, they’ve now taken seven points from their past three games, host a completely dead San Jose side next weekend, and are just two points out of the final Wild Card spot in the East.
This little run is being driven by the play of Nathan Saliba in central midfield and an utterly reborn Caden Clark – playing what’s by far the best soccer of his career – in attack.
I’m not sure how real this is, and the way it’s happening (limited possession, lots of lightning strikes up the gut) looks more like a Hernán Losada team than the Wilfried Nancy-type of club this is supposed to be. But however you slice it, they’re suddenly well in the postseason race and have three more points staring them in the face next weekend before the schedule stiffens up down a bit the stretch.
The Fire are done for 2024. As I have been saying for more than a month now: Expect Gregg Berhalter to be calling the shots in 2025.
8. Our Face of the Week goes to Xavier Arreaga here after getting blessed out by Carles Gil in New England's 4-0 loss at Charlotte:
I’m reminded of the time Nico Lodeiro did the same to Arreaga during MLS is Back.
Anyway, the Revs, like the Fire, are fully cooked. And I am bummed at Dylan Borrero’s inability – thus far, anyway – to recover from his torn ACL. If New England decide to move on from him this winter, I’d hope someone in the league (Nashville, are you listening?) does what it takes to keep him in MLS.
As for Charlotte, this performance (which featured a return to the XI of erstwhile starter Andrew Privett, which moved Tim Ream to left back) was their best in ages. And it was the best yet from two of their DPs, Liel Abada (one goal and lots of danger created) and Pep Biel (1g/1a).
But the real star was second-year No. 9 Patrick Agyemang, who came on just past the hour mark and buried the Revs with 1g/2a and 30 straight minutes of being the best guy on the field.
I am straight-up begging Charlotte not to recruit over Agyemang. He’s got 8g/5a in about 1,700 minutes this year despite playing most of the season without a playmaker and with a rotating cast of wingers. Across all competitions with Charlotte, since being drafted ahead of the 2023 season, he’s got 12g/5a in roughly 2,100 minutes. His numbers with Crown Legacy in MLS NEXT Pro are lol-this-dude-is-a-man-among-boys stuff.
He compares favorably at the same age to a guy like Brian White, another No. 9 who entered the league via the SuperDraft, and whose original team made the mistake of undervaluing him.
You struck gold in the Draft. Do not look a gift horse in the mouth. Agyemang should be the starter down the stretch here, and the presumed starter heading into next season.
7. The Union came out from the whistle and battered D.C. United in Chester, grabbing a 2-0 lead by repeatedly running up that right side and then making it stand up in the 4-0 final. This graphic tells a good chunk of the story:
This wouldn’t be possible if Quinn Sullivan hadn’t developed into a more than reasonable facsimile of Ale Bedoya. Doing so has allowed Sullivan to win that job – he’s now started 22 of Philly’s 30 games, and has become one of the most productive young players in the league with 3g/10a, and he’s done most of it while playing a position (shuttler in a midfield diamond) that’s not an all-out attacker. He has to go endline-to-endline, rotate into the central channel, win balls everywhere, and just… be Bedoya.
Also, I’d have lost my $%^& if he’d assisted his 14-year-old brother Cavan here:
I didn’t see this coming. Credit to Jim Curtin and his staff, who clearly did.
Philly finished the weekend above the line, technically in ninth place on 36 points, but even with eighth-placed Toronto and with a game in hand. Their only league losses over the past two-and-a-half months are to Miami and the Crew, which is the good news. The bad news is their remaining schedule – home vs. Atlanta, at Orlando, at Columbus, then home vs. Cincy on Decision Day – is very, very tough. Next weekend vs. the Five Stripes is a must-win.
Troy Lesesne tossed the dice on a 5-4-1 (I didn’t think this was a bad idea; Philly have had trouble pressing a back five in the past) and it didn’t work, as they were played off the field.
They are still alive, though, as they’re just three points behind Philly and TFC.
6. Good job to the Rapids taking care of business here with a 2-0 win over a heavily rotated Toronto side, though that 2-0 could’ve easily been 3-0 or 4-0 with a better night in front of goal.
Reggie Cannon made his Burgundy debut at left back, with the idea being that he would match up with Federico Bernardeschi. But Bernardeschi didn’t come on until the 56th minute, at which point Cannon was coming off, just after giving the Rapids a 1-0 lead. The best-laid plans of mice and men, etc., etc. Djordje Mihailovic would drive the final nail in from the spot in second-half stoppage.
Colorado are now up to third in the West, a point ahead of LAFC (though LAFC have a game in hand). This was good work.
TFC are still eighth in the East, but they’re just two points above the drop, and everybody chasing them’s got a game in hand. They are holding on for dear life, and now have to turn to a Wednesday trip to Vancouver for the Canadian Championship.
5. Smash-and-grab on the road for the Loons, who did not have much of the ball, and did not play all that well, and still walked out of Kansas City with the 2-0 win because they’ve got a pair of hot goalscorers and some friendly woodwork.
First, Kelvin Yeboah:
Five goals in five games. He has been dynamic in the box and especially drifting out into the channels in both transition and semi-transition, when he can go at opposing center backs in uncomfortable spots.
Notice, by the way, who’s in the box filling the central channel? That’s right winger Bongi Hlongwane, whose movement is always goal-dangerous and whose starting points make him wickedly difficult to track. Though it’s probably worth mentioning the goal he scored in second-half stoppage came when he’d been moved to center forward after Yeboah had been subbed off.
Sporting’s No. 9, William Agada, was not so productive, and his missed 90th-minute PK – smashed it off the upper V – would’ve made it 1-1, and probably would’ve gotten KC at least a point. It was a bad moment from a guy who’s now 0-2 from the penalty spot, and who’s scored just nine goals on 13.6 total xG (12.0 non-penalty xG) this season.
I know KC fans are frustrated. But he’s in the 99th percentile of npxG in two of his three years, and he’s put up 20g/5a in 3,150 MLS minutes. His movement is brilliant; that is the most difficult part of the game, and he’s figured it out. Consistency in front of goal will come, maybe as soon as Wednesday night’s US Open Cup final at LAFC (which he should start, missed PK or not).
Sporting were officially eliminated from playoff contention with the loss. Minnesota kept five points of breathing room over 10th place.
4. Speaking of, los Toros Tejanos had something close to their first-choice attack for the first time all season and it showed. Ruan, Alan Velasco and Jesús Ferreira all get to share our Pass of the Week for this masterpiece in their 3-1 win over an LAFC side that’s officially in a tailspin:
I don’t think Dallas are going to catch Minnesota. It’s too little, too late to sneak above the red line. I do, however, think interim boss Peter Luccin has done more than enough to keep the job.
As for LAFC, let’s be reasonable and note that Steve Cherundolo rotated his squad ahead of Wednesday’s final. I also feel the need to point this out, though:
- From May 9 to August 29, they went 19W-2L-3D with a +39 goal differential. Both losses were to the Crew, who I happen to think are the best team on the continent.
- Since then, they are 0W-3L-2D with a -6 goal differential against teams that definitely are not the best on the continent.
They have lost four straight finals (three last year and this year’s Leagues Cup), and each of those results is entirely understandable.
But they are absolutely massive favorites heading into Wednesday. Godawful form or not, they have to finish the night with a trophy hoist.
3. You know how you can spot a draw that felt like a win? Check the postgame presser.
“The first half was unacceptable. I take responsibility for that. We had a lot of tired players and we maybe should have rotated a little bit. I probably underestimated the emotional strain from Wednesday night. In the second half, I thought Eric\] Miller, \[Cristhian\] Paredes and Mason \[Toye\] showed the character of the team,” is what [Timbers head coach Phil Neville said.
“Then Diego [Chara] coming into the game and Jona [Rodríguez], I think they won us the game.”
The Timbers did not, in fact, win the game; their trip to RSL finished 3-3. But it is entirely understandable that a road point after coming back from a 2-0 first-half deficit, and a 3-2 stoppage-time deficit, felt like a win. The Timbers put together a monster second 45 thanks to the “try harder” and “play better” tactical adjustments.
This, by the way, was Beckham-esque:
Evander is up to 33 goal contributions (15g/18a). The single-season record is 49 by Carlos Vela back in 2019 – he won’t catch that. But second place is Sebastian Giovinco’s 38, from back in 2015, and I am officially not betting against the Brazilian to tie that mark.
By definition, a tie that feels like a win for one team likely felt like a loss for the other. But Pablo Mastroeni, whose team has hit something of a rough patch, put a happy face on it.
“I think the story for me is that we did a really good job, controlling the game, playing the game the way we wanted it to play out. And it's these things where in the last two games, we've given up three poor set pieces,” he said, which I think maaaaaybe undervalues Evander’s scorcher, though I get his point. “So gotta go back and evaluate. Like, what can we do more, in those moments in training?
“But, again, you know, it's about experience in those moments.”
I honestly think this is the right track. Yes, RSL have made the playoffs four straight years, so it feels at times like this is a veteran side. But they’re starting an 18-year-old ‘keeper, and their star playmaker is in his first year as a starter, and they sold their second-best player mid-season, and their best player is only just getting back to health (and picked up his first goal contribution in two-and-a-half months on what should’ve been the game-winner), and the new No. 10 is just getting his feet under him, and the d-mid was a right back 12 months ago.
It’s a lot. I’m betting on them to figure it out down the stretch and hold onto their spot in the top four, though.
2. The Quakes lost another, 2-1 at home to St. Louis. Jeremy Ebobisse sounded off in the postgame, and it sure feels like big changes are coming to this team.
St. Louis’ big changes have already mostly been installed, just too late to save this season. No reason not to be optimistic heading into next year, though, especially if they’re able to make a quality signing at center back (not a given).
1. And let’s all give credit to the Galaxy, who have officially run away with the West by doubling and tripling down on their multi-pronged, multi-faceted attack. When Joseph Paintsil banged home his 10th goal of the season in the 69th minute to give them a 3-1 lead over the Whitecaps – it would end 4-2 – the Galaxy became:
- The second team in MLS history, joining the ‘98 Galaxy, with three 10g/10a guys (Paintsil, Gabriel Pec, Riqui Puig).
- The first team ever with four 10+ goal scorers (the above trio and Dejan Joveljić).
Here’s what that looks like in action:
Gorgeous.
When Marco Reus was signed this summer I assumed he’d act primarily as a super-sub to get those guys some rest, but then would start the big games himself.
Instead, head coach Greg Vanney has inserted Reus into the XI. It took a minute to figure out the right attacking balance between him and Riqui, but they seem to have hit on it with Reus as kind of a trequartista underneath Joveljić and Puig as an attacking 8. Reus, as I mentioned in this column last week, has been very smart about orienting his movement around Puig, which has made it easier for the Galaxy to keep a sane-ish structure (Vanney still calls it a 4-3-3; it is much more of a 4-2-3-1).
Whatever you want to call it, this team’s sliders are set to like 90% “attack” and 10% “get the ball back so we can attack again.”
It is the right move given their talent – just look at the table. But Vanney, even with his attack overclocked, is still looking for defensive improvement.
“For us, a lot of the discussion is trying to continue to set a championship-type of behavior,” Vanney said in the postgame. “I think when we are talking about closing out games, when you have a goal-lead or a two-goal lead, making sure that we are making championship decisions because we're going to have to when it really gets down to it. And I think we need to be thinking about it that way now.
“Sometimes we cheat the defensive moment. We wait for the transition and then we score and so it looks like it's okay, but it's not okay. Those are things we've got to tighten up."
I’m not sure the personnel are suited toward taking that step. But this is the closest the Galaxy have been to a championship side in a decade.
Vancouver will play for another Canadian Championship on Wednesday when they host Toronto. Vanni Sartini rotated his squad for this one, so everyone (including Brian White, who’s got two goals in two games following his return from a concussion, and hopefully including Andrés Cubas, who missed this game with a contusion that has not been described as a long-term injury) should be fit.
Three trophies are up for grabs on Wednesday! Gonna be a long, fun night.
