The stakes have never been higher in the Hudson River Derby.
Next Saturday at Citi Field, New York City FC host New York Red Bulls for an Eastern Conference Semifinal (5:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass). It’ll be the rivals’ 30th all-time meeting and their first in the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.
Normally, there’s just bragging rights and regular-season points on the line. Those are important, of course, but they don’t compare to a do-or-die elimination game.
Biggest derby yet
And look: Anyone who's been connected to this rivalry, you want to say you were part of the biggest game. I’m no different – I played in 14 of these derbies for the Red Bulls, including the infamous Red Wedding, and was fortunate to score 12 goals.
But eliminating your rival from the playoffs, when there’s a wide-open field after several frontrunners were knocked out? That’s an entirely different dynamic, and whoever wins this game might very well represent the East in MLS Cup on Dec. 7.
That’s not to say whoever advances from the Orlando City vs. Atlanta United Conference Semifinal isn’t good enough to make the final. But anything can happen after this, and winning the biggest Hudson River Derby yet gives you all the confidence you need.
For Red Bulls and NYCFC, this match makes your MLS Cup dreams possible – it’ll feel like the trophy is within your fingertips. As a player, you treat this like a Cup final. Nothing less.
NYCFC: The favorite
Let’s avoid any confusion: NYCFC are the favorite. They’re the higher seed (No. 6), are playing at home and won both regular-season meetings this year – including the 5-1 blowout at the end of September.
NYCFC also have momentum from eliminating FC Cincinnati in Round One. They showed real grit to come back after a poor Game 1 performance, making me realize I haven’t given them enough credit for their spirit. I've always looked at NYCFC as a team that values the ball above all else and doesn’t really have a second plan. But going to TQL Stadium and winning a do-or-die Game 3? That isn’t easy. You saw a real fight about them.
And in playoffs, the teams that go furthest have a striker who can carry the team. NYCFC have exactly that in Alonso Martínez, who’s ended questions about the club needing a consistent goalscorer. We were asking that ever since Taty Castellanos first left in the summer of 2022!
NYCFC were also a team that caused you problems in possession and build-up, but over-relied on guys like Santi Rodríguez and Maxi Moralez. Now Martínez is a top 10-15 forward in MLS and the way he takes his goals, it screams “No. 9” to me. He almost reminds me of when they had David Villa, the type of striker who's running that line and then can pounce.
RBNY: The underdog
Despite all that, it’s hard not to dream big if you’re a Red Bulls fan. Imagine this: You come into the playoffs and have to play the defending champion Columbus Crew. You sweep them in two games, then have to play against your rival who you lost against in the regular season – badly. But you beat them when it matters most and go on to make or even win MLS Cup?! What a story.
For me, two things sparked RBNY's turnaround after they limped into the playoffs.
They’re always a team that’s hard to play against; they press you high, they defend really well. Now they have a difference-maker in Emil Forsberg. They desperately needed his return from injury to help slow the games down, or find the killer final pass, to complete a movement. He brings so much quality, elevating Lewis Morgan and Dante Vanzier. If Red Bulls had Forsberg healthy all year, they’d have finished higher up the table – he turns draws into wins.
The other piece is when the regular season finishes, you have to find a new groove for playoffs. Red Bulls have done exactly that. When you're going through the grind of a season and you're chasing a top-four spot, then you get into a place where you're not winning, you just want it to be done. Now, they can look at MLS Cup and the playoffs as a new season that they treat as a reset.
Bragging rights
Analysis aside, here’s the question on everyone’s mind: Come Saturday, will New York be red or blue? NYCFC are the favorite. They’ve got all the pressure. Red Bulls are the underdog and expectations are lower. Then again, sometimes none of that matters in a rivalry match. Form can go out the window and intensity wins out.
Whatever happens, just know the bragging rights are bigger than ever before. This is the game everyone will be talking about for years, and the one opposing supporters rub in your face.
It's going to be an incredible atmosphere at Citi Field – a packed house with two teams fighting tooth and nail to advance. Someone is going to make their name and write it up in lights. I can’t wait.
