We’re in the home stretch, folks.
Twenty-eight MLS teams have 10 or fewer games left to play between now and the end of the regular season, with Columbus Crew the lone outlier thanks to their deep runs in multiple cup competitions. A few clubs have as few as seven games remaining in their regular season.
Teams can basically taste the sweet, sweet Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs air. In the case of Inter Miami, who clinched a spot in the Eastern Conference field with Saturday’s 2-0 win over FC Cincinnati, they can really taste it.
With a crowded field competing for the final spots across the East and the West, which clubs have the best chance to get (or stay) above the playoff line? I’ve picked my top three bubble teams in both conferences.
Onwards.
It’s a race for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. At least it certainly seems that way, barring a collapse from Orlando City or Toronto FC.
Atlanta United sit ninth in the table, with a big ol’ pack of teams breathing on their neck. Philadelphia, Montréal, New England, Chicago, Nashville and D.C. are all very much within striking distance of the Wild Card places. Still, I’ve picked the Five Stripes as one of the bubble teams to watch extra closely because they’re just that talented.
Does moving Giorgos Giakoumakis to Cruz Azul and not replacing him hurt? You bet it does. But even without a top-end No. 9 leading the line, my bet is Atlanta have more than enough quality to maintain their pace. Saba Lobzhanidze and Xande Silva are both above-average wingers in this league – and with big-money No. 10 Alexey Miranchuk in line to soon make his first start, those two will once again have a difference-maker to play off of.
Atlanta’s ceiling isn’t what many hoped it would be at this point in the season. But with a solid spine and an attacking midfield line littered with upside, their floor is high enough to stay above the line.
The Philadelphia Union have the fourth-best expected goal differential per 90 minutes in the Eastern Conference, according to FBref. Let that sink in for a minute. The underlying numbers adore Philly, who have created an impressive amount of chances this season. They sit third in the league in non-penalty xG per 90 in 2024.
Tai Baribo is looking like a legitimate line-leading striker. Andre Blake looks more like the Andre Blake of old (and not the one that allowed a quarter of a goal more than expected every 90 minutes, based on FBref’s data). And the Union as a whole? Well, they’re fresh off a run to the Leagues Cup semifinals and their defense is finally starting to settle.
Over the last several years, betting against the Philadelphia Union to make some noise in the East has been a bad idea. This year doesn’t seem all that different.
Am I reading too much into the Revs’ 5-0 win on Saturday at a struggling CF Montréal team? Quite possibly. But do they have a legitimate chance to hop above the playoff line? I absolutely think so.
Coming into 2024, I was significantly cooler on New England than most. I predicted them 10th in the East, which was lower than all but two of my peers. At the start of the season, the Revs had questionable production from their DPs, concerns at goalkeeper and barely any central-midfield depth. After the summer transfer window, things look noticeably brighter for Caleb Porter's team.
They improved on the wing by signing Luca Langoni and added Alhassan Yusuf in central midfield. Aljaž Ivačič has been a serviceable option in goal. Oh, and they’re also back to something approaching full fitness (Carles Gil returning is massive).
This is a much different team than the one that looked poised to stumble out of the gates in 2024. The Revs could make noise.
Portland’s attack is far, far too good for them to not be a playoff team.
Their combination of Evander, Jonathan Rodríguez and Felipe Mora has been downright filthy leading the way for a Timbers team that's second in the entire league in goals scored, with 54. That number puts them above everybody except Inter Miami. You know, the Inter Miami with some of the greatest players of all time suiting up for Tata Martino? Yeah, that Inter Miami.
It’s the defense, of course, that’s the concern for Phil Neville. Just when it seemed like things were trending in the right direction, they shipped four goals to St. Louis CITY SC in their first game back from the Leagues Cup break. Portland don’t deal with loose balls in their box very well, they don’t control space in their final third all that well, and they’re far too vulnerable defensively to be a top-tier trophy contender. Only two teams in MLS allow more progressive passes per 90 minutes than Portland, according to FBref: San Jose Earthquakes and LA Galaxy.
Sure, they’re flawed. But the Timbers’ attack is good enough to carry them to the postseason.
Houston had an above-average squad before the summer transfer window opened. Then they added Ezequiel Ponce as a DP striker and Lawrence Ennali as a U22 Initiative winger. I don’t want to blow your mind here, but the Dynamo indeed got better by adding more talent without losing anybody.
Houston are still missing a pure chance creator, the kind of player who can ease the burden on their quality progressive midfielders and feed the new attackers. But that issue has been left for the winter window.
Even without that No. 10-type to help Houston break out of the bottom third of MLS in terms of non-penalty xG per 90 minutes, Ben Olsen has the tactical blueprint and the talent at his disposal to stay well above the line. Thanks to their possession-heavy system naturally limiting their opponents’ chances by simply not letting them have the ball in the first place, Houston are a tough team to beat.
Now with a little more attacking juice? They’re inching closer to being a hard team to stop.
Sure, D.C. United did plenty to ensure FC Dallas looked like prime FC Barcelona on Saturday. Their press was sloppy and slow, affording Dallas enough space to carve right through their 4-4-2 diamond structure in the early stages of the visitors’ 4-3 win at Audi Field.
But man-oh-man, FC Dallas looked comfortable moving the rock this past weekend:
Asier Illarramendi has been a game-changer in central midfield from the moment he arrived after his years in LaLiga. Health has been Illarramendi's issue, not a lack of quality, and he’s healthy right now. Manuel “Show” Cafumana has an elite nickname and looked worthy of it with his performance as a balanced member of Peter Luccin’s double pivot against D.C. The Angolan international, who joined during the summer window, “show”ed (I literally can’t help myself) a useful passing range, some clever off-ball work, and sharp defensive reactions.
With a solid foundation at the base of midfield, FC Dallas can string together regular final-third entries. If Alan Velasco and Jesús Ferreira join Peter Musa in attack, those final-third entries will turn into real chances.
I’m ready to be hurt again: this Dallas team is trending upwards and looks poised to hop the fence into the playoff field.
