Here is the writing prompt, sent Tuesday morning:
Below are some of my favorite responses, as well as my responses to those responses. That makes this the first mailbag of 2023 (a New Year’s resolution of mine is to produce these more regularly).
This will be part 1 of this mailbag, with parts 2 & 3 coming Thursday & Friday.
In we go!
Since this year is Year 1 of a whole new era in how the league will be broadcast (nationally and globally), it feels like this is the question to start with.
Now, bear in mind this isn’t my sandbox since I have exactly zero to do with broadcasting and scheduling, and since I’m a sicko who watches all the games no matter what time they’re on or where. The Apple TV deal is great for me, obviously, but in terms of my week-to-week consumption of MLS, it’s not going to change much.
For everyone else, though, it feels like it can/will change a ton, and at least part of that change will be for the reasons listed above. Putting together a schedule with consistent week-to-week start times is one thing the league has never really done, and now it’s basically the foundation for the next 10 years (mostly Saturdays at 7:30 pm local for the home team). The fact those start times are primarily clustered in the “we’re going out and doing something fun as a group of friends/as a family/as a bunch of MLS-obsessed nerds” night of the week makes too much sense. The goal is to make it easier for fans to know when the games are on, which then makes those fans more likely to attend or watch from home. And yes, the start times are also family-friendly for the reasons jamison listed in his tweet.
So, will MLS own summer Saturday nights the way the NFL owns autumn Sunday afternoons? I mean, that’s the dream, but I think we can all recognize it’ll take a hell of a lot to get to that point. But the clarity of intent is there, and that feels like a major step.
Rolled into the deal is the end of blackouts via MLS Season Pass on Apple TV. It’s one subscription to rule them all, man – you pay your cash, you get to watch every single game.
Pretty great.
Ok, now onto the soccer part…
We are juuuust about three weeks from the first MLS team kicking a ball in anger in 2023, as Seattle’s well-earned trip to Morocco for the 2022 FIFA Club World Cup is coming up in early February. It is thrilling, and I’m assuming Extratime’s David Gass and Producent Anders are doing everything in their power to get over there and produce a road show. That’s A+ content right there.
The tournament draw is this coming Friday (way early in the morning). The Sounders will be drawn into the second round, which means they’ll face one of Wydad Casablanca (hosts), Al-Hilal (Asian champions) or the winner of Al-Ahly (African champions) vs. Auckland City (Oceania champs). The two winners from those matchups then face either Real Madrid (you’ve heard of them) or Flamengo (this is time for my regularly-scheduled “some MLS team should buy Gabigol!” lament).
The Sounders will not win the Club World Cup. They may very well not win a single game – we’ve seen that happen to Concacaf teams before. But we’ve also seen Concacaf teams put in memorable performances, as Tigres managed a couple of years ago when they made it all the way to the final and scared the bejesus out of Bayern Munich before falling 1-0.
As for the specific bullet points in that tweet, I’m going to address the first two:
1) João Paulo’s health is one of the biggest variables in the league this year. If he comes back from his ACL tear good as new (which can and does happen), then there’s every reason to think Seattle’s a 60-point team and a threat to win every cup competition they’re in.
If, however, JP's limited, then that significantly lowers Seattle’s ceiling unless one of the kids on the roster takes a massive step forward. Obed Vargas is probably the most talented of them, but he’s recovering from an injury of his own (back) and is just 17 years old, so you can’t ask for too much. Josh Atencio had a breakout 2021 but took a step backwards in 2022, and part of me still thinks his best pro future is as a Tim Ream-esque ball-playing center back (certainly the USMNT fan part of me hopes that, as there aren’t many ball-playing center backs in the pipeline).
Then there’s Danny Leyva, who had some good moments last year but never looked fully in charge of games like a No. 6 and might just be the wrong guy to pair with Albert Rusnák. There’s reported interest in Leyva among Liga MX sides, and I wouldn’t be at all shocked if he was sold should the right offer come in.
There are other things to keep an eye on with the Sounders (Will Nico Lodeiro be the same? Will Jordan Morris recover to his 2020 best? Can Raúl Ruídiaz stay healthy?), but JP being MVP-caliber again is the biggest one.
2) Which is not to blow off the Nouhou bit! He’s made a name for himself on three continents now with his 1v1 defense, and as I’ve written a million times, he was legitimately an MLS Defender of the Year contender in the first half of 2021 before injuries took him off the field.
The issue, of course, is that he spent that year playing as a left center back in a 3-5-2, which is pretty clearly his best spot. The way the Sounders play out of that formation asks Nouhou to shut everything down defensively, win the ball and hit simple passes to the feet of checking midfielders. That’s it.
And there is a vast gulf between that and what the Sounders ask of him when playing as a fullback in a back four. He can go endline to endline, of course, but his inability to complete dangerous passes either in transition or in the attacking third just killed Seattle last season.
In short: Nouhou is an MLS Defender of the Year candidate in a back three, and a defensive sub in a back four. The Sounders will almost certainly play a back four this year, which makes Nouhou an odd fit.
I still suspect he could be moved this month with new GM Craig Waibel bringing in a more competent two-way option instead of a defensive specialist.
Since I already mentioned Tigres above, I’ll use that as an excuse to jump across the country and talk about Orlando City a little bit – they’ll be facing the Mexican giants in early March in the Concacaf Champions League. It’s going to be a brutal and potentially humbling early-season test.
Even if the Lions fail it – Tigres are the biggest and most successful club in North America over the past decade, so chances are they will – I’m still pretty bullish on what we’ll see from Oscar Pareja’s squad this season. As Thomas J. Scoops said on Monday’s Extratime, Orlando have maybe had the best offseason of anyone in MLS.
- They re-signed playmaker Mauricio Pereyra to a non-DP contract, which opened up a DP slot to bring in winger Martín Ojeda, who is a good early bet for Newcomer of the Year.
- They brought in two new left backs, one a high-upside kid from within the league (Luca Petrasso) and one a 24-year-old with a half-decade of experience in the Brazilian top flight (Rafael Santos).
- They brought back goalkeeper Pedro Gallese and central midfielder Wilder Cartagena, neither of which was certain.
- They crushed the SuperDraft in grabbing attacker (probably a winger, but also maybe a backup No. 10) Shak Mohammed and center forward Duncan McGuire.
- They’re reportedly adding a new U22 initiative attacker in Ramiro Enrique.
It’s been a very busy offseason for Orlando, but one that has mostly flown under the radar. And it’s left them with a very deep squad and few areas of need – another central midfielder, maybe a veteran right back. And that’s it.
This is the kind of thing you can do when you have a head coach who’s as good at player development as Pareja. He has always found answers via the SuperDraft, and he has always molded elite talent from South America.
To me, this feels a lot like a side that’s going to 1) play more entertaining soccer this year than the past two, and 2) win a bunch more.
So whatever happens vs. Tigres, I do think they’ll take the next step this year.
Let’s segue over to Pareja’s old team, FC Dallas. They spent most of 2022 being very well-drilled and very good, in large part because 1) they basically never gave up cheap goals – their rest defense was excellent, so they never got countered, and 2) Jesús Ferreira had one of the absolute best seasons by a young striker we’ve ever seen.
I didn’t put “striker” in quotes there because a false 9 is still pretty clearly a type of No. 9, which means he was, in fact, a striker. Yes, he spent a good chunk of time dropping off the front line into midfield in order to add numbers and help control the game. But he spent more time occupying the center backs, getting into the box and scoring goals. I do think, long-term, that his best position will be as a Sebastián Driussi-like shadow striker. I do admit, however, that for what Dallas needed last year (improved defense via improved possession and overall structure), Ferreira was essential.
For all of Ferreira’s gifts, though, he has a ways to go before he’s a natural goalscorer in the box. He’ll occupy the center backs, yes, but he doesn’t really beat them much at the near post, and he rarely runs the channels in an “I’m going to get onto the end of this through ball” kind of way. There were hints of progress throughout the season, but only hints and nothing beyond that. His goals tended to come from late arrivals after the defense had already become disorganized, rather than the types of hard, off-ball runs that tend to make the best strikers in the world, ya know, the best strikers in the world.
And so I’m pretty convinced that for Dallas to take the next step, Ferreira’s going to have to take the next step as well. He won’t have to give up the false 9 stuff – keeping that as the core of his game is actually good. What he has to do is add some fox-in-the-box layers to his game so he can score more opportunistic goals rather than relying almost exclusively upon well-worked team goals.
Alan Velasco taking a big step forward could and should play a big part in that. He was very good for a young attacker last year. In 2023 he needs to be very good, period.
While Dallas need Ferreira to take a step forward from an already high level, Austin have more room for improvement with DP Emiliano Rigoni, who came aboard midseason and really, really did not do much to help the Verde’s fortunes down the stretch and into the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.
Rigoni had no goals and no assists in his 282 regular-season minutes and then followed that up with no goals or assists in 165 postseason minutes. He managed only three shots in the regular season, while in the postseason he did better and took six (if he takes ~3 shots per game in 2023, Austin will be in luck. Eventually those will start going in since his last name is not “Cabral”). However, for a guy who dribbles a lot on a team that otherwise lacks players with 1v1 ability, the fact he drew just five fouls in about 450 minutes is a concern.
Here’s the thing with Rigoni: He will beat a guy off the dribble, but then his lack of speed is so flagrant that nobody bothers to foul him; they just reel him in and force him backwards:
He got credit for two successful dribbles on this sequence. Oof.
Rigoni doesn’t have to be MVP-caliber like Driussi, and he doesn’t even have to be Best XI or All-Star level. Hell, he doesn’t even need to be the best winger on the team if Diego Fagúndez is going to keep playing as he did in 2022.
He just needs to be reliably pretty good. I’m talking like six goals and 10 assists on the season, and fewer moments like the one above where he strangled a potential breakaway to death.
Even if Austin don’t get that much out of Rigoni – even if Ethan Finlay is still the superior option, as was the case last year – that attack is still likely to be really good.
They need to be a level above “really good” if they’re to take a step forward, though. Gyasi Zardes will help them get there. They need Rigoni to help, too.
I’ll end Part 1 here with the Quakes, who need to take many, many steps forward to get to where they want to be. Hiring Luchi Gonzalez is a signal of intent in that regard, as Luchi was one of the best academy coaches/directors in the nation before sliding up to the big chair for two-and-a-half years in Dallas from 2019 to mid-2021 before being let go.
So, what went right and what went wrong?
Right
- Defensive structure and overall solidity (for the first two years, anyway).
- Meaningful progress from a number of young players.
- Very good build-out play from the back.
Wrong
- Very poor final-third attacking patterns.
- Misidentifying certain players and putting them in suboptimal positions.
If Luchi can keep the first three aspects of his tenure in Dallas, and then improve upon the first of the two things that went wrong, I genuinely think the Quakes have the type of talent to push this team onto the “Philly Union of the West” track they’re clearly aiming toward.
They already have a number of established borderline stars – Jeremy Ebobisse, Cristian Espinoza and Jamiro Monteiro aren’t among the very best attacking trios in the league, but they’re not far off that pace. If Luchi can get the kind of improvement out of kids like Cade Cowell and Niko Tsakiris that Quakes fans are justifiably hoping for, then this team will suddenly be kinda spoiled for attacking choice.
And then down at the other end of the field, they need a bounce-back year from goalkeeper JT Marcinkowski, a long-term answer at the No. 6 and clarity on what the right center back partnership is (I am really, really high on first-round pick Daniel Munie).
So yeah, there are still some holes, and if I were a Quakes fan I’d be keeping my expectations in check. But there’s also, now, some clarity of vision and, with it, a blueprint for how to proceed. That alone represents a step forward for this club, and it’s reasonable to hope more will follow.
