Tim Howard has arrived, and the Colorado Rapids believe they have the missing piece needed to push their team to the Promised Land.
Howard trained with the team for the first time earlier this week and will likely make his Rapids debut when first-place Colorado hosts defending MLS Cup champion Portland Timbers in their annual Fourth of July match at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park on Monday (9 pm ET; MLS LIVE).
The match will be one of the most significant in Rapids history, with the surprising Supporters’ Shield leaders set to welcome the highest profile player in club history in front of what’s expected to be a sell-out crowd.
They’re right to be excited out in Denver. After they picked up Jermaine Jones this winter, Howard adds additional legitimacy to the Rapids roster, easing some of the concerns about their overall talent level and perhaps removing some doubt about whether or not their shocking start is sustainable.
Howard, who will step in for Zac MacMath in net, will bring leadership, experience and a whole lot of talent to a stingy defense that’s allowed just 11 goals in 16 games – by far the fewest in the league.
Even coming off of a down year at Everton, we know Howard won’t cost the Rapids many – if any – points down the stretch. He’ll be steady, and he should only help Colorado as they look to carry their first half form through the summer and into the fall. That’s not something we could say with certainty about MacMath, who has been solid this year but prone to errors during his MLS career. That difference is a definite positive for the Rapids.
But does Howard push Colorado over the top? Does he make them the favorite to come out of the West?
I don’t think so.
That’s not a slight at Howard, who I’d take in a heartbeat over most of the ‘keepers in the West. He’s easily the most accomplished backstop in the league and, even at 37, has more talent than just about anyone. At best, he’ll be the top goalkeeper in the league. At worst, he’ll still be in that discussion with Bill Hamid, David Ousted, Nick Rimando and Luis Robles.
But goalkeepers just aren’t the reason teams win MLS Cups.
Only three times in league history – and not since Pat Onstad pulled it off with San Jose in 2003 – has a ‘keeper won Goalkeeper of the Year and MLS Cup in the same season. Ousted and Robles, my best two ‘keepers in 2015, were both bounced in the conference semifinals last year, while Portland's Adam Kwarasey and Columbus’ Steve Clark both made big errors that led to goals in MLS Cup.
The evidence here isn’t just anecdotal – the numbers support the argument, too. Goalkeeping stats can be a bit funny, but one metric I think is a solid indicator of how well a ‘keeper is playing is American Soccer Analysis’ expected goals allowed minus goals allowed rank (xGA-GA).
Since they started keeping track of the stat in 2011, the only starting ‘keeper from any of the last five MLS Cups to place higher than ninth among MLS starters in that category was Rimando, who was second in 2013. RSL and Rimando, of course, lost that year’s final to Sporting Kansas City and Jimmy Nielsen, who was injured and immobile at Cup and finished that regular season with the sixth-worst xGA-GA number of any starter.
This isn’t to say the Rapids, who I still see as underdogs behind teams like Dallas and LA in the West, can’t win MLS Cup. They certainly could. But if they do, it’ll primarily be because of the stingy defense, timely attacking formula that has them in first-place at the midway point, not Howard’s summertime arrival.
