I’m biting my nails. Are you biting yours?
With Decision Day (Oct. 19) rapidly approaching and most clubs having only seven regular-season matches left, the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs race is heating way, way up.
As teams fight to land one of the final postseason spots, let's examine why each Western Conference team will (and won’t) hop over the postseason line. Here's why your favorite fringe playoff team should be happy. Or sad.
For some Eastern Conference bubble talk, we've also got you covered.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because they’re the West’s best bubble team
Minnesota United’s summer transfer window flew under the radar because of the lack of big names and the timing of some deals. But I’ll say it: chief soccer officer Khaled El-Ahmad did great work during his first summer window in charge of the Loons.
Kelvin Yeboah, in particular, has made an immediate impact. He’s another quality striker option at Eric Ramsay’s disposal and has been a threat running behind opposing backlines. Jefferson Díaz has a great athletic profile and upside on the ball, even if his mistake doomed Minnesota in their loss to Seattle a couple of weekends ago. We're also still waiting for new DP central midfielder Joaquín Pereyra to debut.
This team is increasingly deep and talented, and they’re out of their pre-Leagues Cup slump.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because their schedule is brutal
Let’s run through the rest of Minnesota United’s 2024 regular season slate, shall we?
Two games against vastly improved St. Louis CITY, the same team that defeated the LA Galaxy last Sunday. A game against FC Cincinnati. Three games against sure-fire Western Conference playoff teams. One game against a team trying to claw their way into the postseason.
None of the West's bubble teams have easy schedules. But Minnesota’s ability to push forward with limited continuity relative to the other clubs vying for a playoff spot will be tested in a big way.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because Brad Stuver is an eraser
There’s enough season left to be played that it’s difficult to settle on a definitive MLS Goalkeeper of the Year award winner. But if we’re creating a group of legitimate contenders to claim that title, Brad Stuver is clearly towards the top of that list. He’s saved 7.4 goals more than expected in the regular season, according to FBref, which is more than every goalkeeper in the league outside of Charlotte’s Kristijan Kahlina.
Stuver faces a ton of shots: Austin allow 15.1 shots per 90, which is more than everybody but the Galaxy. And yet? They’re still afloat. There’s not another player in the Western Conference bubble race who changes games like Stuver.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because the rest of the squad won’t stop doodling on the chalkboard
Stuver can erase a lot, but there’s too much for him to handle by himself. According to FBref, Josh Wolff’s team has the worst expected goal difference in the Western Conference and the second-worst in the entire league on a per-90-minute basis. The backline leaks chances and the attack hasn’t shown a consistent ability to turn possession into chances.
Sebastián Driussi has started as the No. 9 in each of Austin’s last three games, with Wolff relegating Diego Rubio and Gyasi Zardes to the bench. The early returns on Osman Bukari have been mixed. The defensive additions haven’t made a huge impact. Stuver is an elite player in his position, but precious few of his teammates can say the same.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because the attack is gearing up for the final stretch
Since returning from the Leagues Cup break, FC Dallas haven’t played either of their two matches with a single Designated Player in the starting lineup.
Petar Musa, Jesús Ferreira and Alan Velasco have been working their way back from various injuries, leaving Dallas without high-quality options in the final third. The midfield has performed admirably in their absence – maybe even better than admirably. Asier Illarramendi continues to look like an elite possession player whenever he’s healthy and Show is displaying the tools of a nice all-around talent. But without the DPs? There’s been too much pressure placed on rookie striker Logan Farrington. Farrington has been strong in his first year, but he’s better suited to a super-sub role.
Once the big guns are back in full (all three came off the bench on Saturday), expect Dallas to start causing more problems in the attack.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because the defense gets shredded like this:
That entire sequence, from the initial rest defense structure to the attempted counter-pressing to the poor one-v-one defending to the slow reactions inside the box, is not ideal, to say the least.
FC Dallas have the midfield and attacking personnel to control games with the ball. They, however, do not have the individual defensive quality or effective pressing to stay strong once they lose the ball. That’s been the season-defining issue for Dallas. They needed more quality in the back and in central midfield before the season started. They’ve addressed the midfield need, but it won’t be enough.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because they finally have some momentum
Is momentum a bit too intangible for my liking to use as a real point in these discussions? Most of the time, sure. For Sporting Kansas City, though, it really does look like they’ve come out of the Leagues Cup break with clearer ideas and execution than they had at any prior point in the year.
A 3-0 win over Orlando City was a great way to push into their US Open Cup semifinal win over USL Championship side Indy Eleven – which secured a spot in next year’s Concacaf Champions Cup. Results are coming. They’re finally showing glimpses of an ability to control games with and without the ball. Players' roles are growing increasingly clear, too. It will be incredibly difficult for SKC to hop above the playoff line given their nine-point hole. But it’s not over until it’s over.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because they didn’t do enough in the summer
Overcoming a nine-point gap with seven games to go? Crazy hard. Overcoming a nine-point gap with seven games remaining without any meaningful additions in the now-closed summer transfer window? I don’t think so, my friends.
Sporting KC are playing more cohesive soccer – that part up above was true. But while the teams above (and below them) made real moves in the summer, SKC brought in exactly one (1) first-team addition in center back Joaquín Fernández. The West got better. SKC really didn’t. They’re in trouble.
Why they will make the playoffs: Because they’re scary now
After finishing on top of the West in their expansion campaign, St. Louis put together an uninspired winter transfer window before their second season. They didn’t replace most of the goal contributions that left through Jared Stroud and Niko Gioacchini. They started the year severely under-manned in the final third, to the point where poor results entering the summer weren’t surprising.
But after their summer reload, St. Louis look like a legitimate threat to win every game. They’ve picked up four points in two matches since returning from Leagues Cup: a 4-4 draw at the Timbers and a 2-1 home win against the Galaxy. Going on a crazy-hot run of form feels slightly possible for St. Louis in a way that it just doesn’t for Sporting Kansas City.
Why they won’t make the playoffs: Because they waited too long
Blame a lack of action in the offseason. Blame the schedule and transfer window timing that generally sees the best players available in the summer rather than the winter. Blame whatever you want. But at least one playoff probability model puts St. Louis CITY’s chances of reaching the playoffs at 1%. That’s about where my mental model would’ve put them, too. I don’t know about you, but I don’t love those odds.
The front office has done a good job of positioning St. Louis as a team that will be fully in the playoff mix from the jump next year (rather than just for the last quarter of the season). But it really is more about next season than this one.
