The 28th MLS regular season is officially in the books, which means that it’s now time for the 28th edition of the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.
You certainly know this if you’re reading this column, but just in case you’ve been living under a rock: the format has changed yet again. Instead of single elimination all the way through, there will be a single-elimination Wild Card round featuring the 8th seed hosting the 9th seed in each conference, followed by a Round Best-of-3 in which the higher seed hosts the first and third* game, while the lower seed hosts the second game.
(*) If necessary.
In the Wild Card and Best-of-3 series, there’s no extra time – all games go straight to PKs if it’s tied after 90, and a PK shootout win counts the same as a regulation win. Everything after Round One goes back to the familiar old format where, if it’s tied after 90, we get a half hour of extra time (and if it’s tied after that, we’ve got PKs. I’m sure you know this, but whatever).
I’ll be cranking out mini-previews of every game throughout the playoffs. All data below is from TruMedia via StatsPerform unless otherwise noted. Let’s have some fun!
- WHEN: Wednesday, Oct. 25 | 7:30 pm ET
- WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
Here are the two facts that, I think, will define this game:
- The Red Bulls are excellent at controlling games by turning them into ax fights. Virtually nobody has been able to go up against RBNY this year and play their game. Instead, it’s just an exercise in surviving a million car crashes against a team whose blueprint is to treat every 30/70 like it’s a 50/50.
- The Red Bulls are poor at turning that match control into goals. They have simply lacked the final-third quality to finish the chances they so often create.
Here’s how that shows up in the numbers:
- RBNY’s expected goals differential is +13.74, which made them one of the five best teams in the league.
- Their actual goal differential was -3, which put them mid-table.
- The gulf between their goal differential and expected goals differential was -16.74, which is one of the 10 worst marks of the past decade.
The other teams around that -16 mark are some of the more wretched in MLS history, including FC Cincinnati’s Wooden Spoon winners, that miserable 2020 LA Galaxy team and Chivas USA (RIP) from 2014.
So yeah, I really do think this one comes down to RBNY’s finishing.
Which is not to say that Charlotte are entirely helpless. It went under the radar that they’re something of a pressing team themselves, as their man-oriented scheme has them allowing the ninth-fewest passes per defensive action in the league (RBNY, who use a ball-oriented scheme, are first in PPDA and have been since 2015). And Charlotte allow opponents to progress just 19.3 meters per possession, which is second-best behind RBNY’s 18.6.
In other words, they get on you quickly with the intent of making it hard to build through midfield.
The issue, though, is RBNY simply do not care about building through midfield – they’ll happily launch long-balls at the front line all game long, then play for those 50/50s (or 30/70s).
And I don’t think Charlotte have an answer for that. They have not defended well in their own box all year long, and even when they win the ball they still commit a ton of turnovers trying to play out from the back.
This one probably won’t get ugly – the Red Bulls simply do not score enough goals to turn it into a rout. But It feels like a pretty big mismatch.
- WHEN: Wednesday, Oct. 25 | 9:30 pm ET
- WATCH: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
San Jose’s trip to Children’s Mercy Park might be an even bigger mismatch. I’ve beaten this particular point into the ground the past few months, but let’s play the hits at least one more time: Since DPs Alan Pulido and Gadi Kinda (as well as goalkeeper Tim Melia) got healthy in early May, Sporting have been the best team in the Western Conference at 1.71 PPG.
This isn’t some small-sample-size fluke. This is “Hey our best players are finally able to actually kick a soccer ball and man, turns out that makes a difference.” Add in center back Dany Rosero getting integrated and homegrown right back Jake Davis winning that job in late April, and we’re talking about half the lineup changing almost overnight.
Naturally, it shows up in the stats: Since May 7 Sporting are 7th in the league in possession (possession matters a ton to this team, who spend a lot of time defending with the ball instead of chasing it) and are third in passing accuracy. They’re first in passing accuracy in the final third.
The cheap turnovers and transition run-outs that killed them in the first two months of the season basically don’t exist anymore. They’re still not a great defensive team by any stretch – 36 goals allowed since that May 7 win, which is a pretty robust 1.5 goals per game – but with their attack clicking, all they’ve needed on the defensive side is a middling performance. As such, their +9 goal differential over the final 24 games of the season is seventh in the league in that span, and second in the West behind Houston.
San Jose are mostly on the other side of those tallies, both over the past few months and over the course of the season as a whole. For a team with the 16th-best record in the league, they ended up about where you’d expect in most metrics – smack in the middle of the pack.
The one thing that jumps out, though, is only Toronto FC turned the ball over more in their own defensive third. Even as they slowly kind of gave up on the idea of being a build-from-the-back possession team, they still couldn’t stop handing chances directly to their opponents.
Those Sporting attackers are, I’m sure, licking their chops.
One last note: San Jose haven’t won at Sporting since Aug. 19, 2015, and have won just once in their past 17 trips to Kansas across all competitions.
