Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

What now? Western Conference teams not in the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs

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The 2025 MLS season won't end quite how a half-dozen Eastern Conference clubs had planned back in February. Though as of publication, we don’t know exactly which half-dozen.

Two spots are left for FC Dallas, Real Salt Lake, the Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes. That means two of those teams will see their vacations start on Sunday, and we will add their post-mortems after the Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs field is finalized.

But we know of four for sure at this point, and we’ll examine them now. In we go.

2025 in a nutshell

Houston were up against it from the start after an offseason exodus saw them lose their two best midfielders and, right before the season started, their best center back. This came after parting ways with their goalkeeper and… yeah. It was a lot to try to account for.

And they never really did. Just when they seemed to be figuring it out (10 points from four pretty tough games in May), they took just two wins from the subsequent 11, and never really came up for air again.

What comes next?

Big changes. I count 10 on their senior roster – basically half the senior roster – either looking at a team option or out of contract entirely. Right back Griffin Dorsey, who’s been one of the team’s better players over the past few seasons, said point-blank that there haven’t been any contract discussions, and I doubt he’s the only one in that boat.

They can open up two Designated Player slots and at least one U22 Initiative slot, and that’s before considering any creative uses of buyouts or potential player sales.

It should be busy. You don’t have a year like this, then let it not be busy.

What to watch for this winter

Is someone going to come in and make them an offer they can’t refuse for DP No. 9 Ezequiel Ponce?

The Argentine has been mid, with just nine non-PK goals this season and underlying numbers that put him at about the 50th percentile among all center forwards for xG+xA per 90. I know there was some interest in him overseas last winter, but nothing came of it. Maybe this time around.

The other big one is Artur’s option. It’s expensive, but he’s still excellent and is just turning 30. I hope they keep him around.

Player I’m excited for

Lawrence Ennali is in the 72nd percentile among all wingers in npxG/90 and the 70th percentile in xA/90 while coming off a bad ACL tear. Can’t wait to see what he looks like when fully fit next season.

Notes

  • Jack McGlynn was a steal for this team last winter, which makes me wonder if they’ll do more intra-league shopping rather than looking overseas. Between McGlynn, Artur and Dorsey – all guys acquired from within MLS – their hit rate is much higher than on imports.
  • They have two young goalkeepers whose underlying numbers suggest they’re future starters, and given the way Jonathan Bond has performed this year, the future should be now.

2025 in a nutshell

Olof Mellberg was as far over his head as an MLS coach as almost anyone I’ve ever seen in this league, and I’ve been watching from day one. He said his goal was to fix the defense, and you could kind of see it, even when it came with a broken offense. But both were broken by five matchdays, and he was out of a job by late May.

David Critchley’s been in charge on an interim basis since then, and while they’ve been both better and more fun to watch, they never put together any semblance of a playoff push.

What comes next?

Hiring a new CSO. Lutz Pfannenstiel appointed Mellberg, and was shown the door almost immediately after the summer transfer window – during which he was allowed to fill St. Louis’ last two premium roster slots, which… weird, but ok I guess – and has yet to be replaced.

I’ve got to assume they’ve done a pretty thorough search by now. Maybe that ends with current technical director John Hackworth getting the bump up, or maybe it ends with club president and GM Diego Gigliani adding CSO to his collection of titles.

Or maybe it’s just someone totally new. Whatever the case, it’d be unwise to make big decisions (on the roster, coach, or game model) until that guy is in place.

What to watch for this winter

They have an option on No. 9 João Klauss, who has not lived up to his DP tag. Now, they can bring him back as a non-DP even if they trigger the option, but… I don’t know. That’s an expensive option to exercise for such a streaky goalscorer.

The decision they’ve got to make on goalkeeper Roman Bürki is easy: they’ve got to figure out how to keep him. He’s been the team’s best player since they entered the league in 2023, and while he hasn’t been quite as outstanding this year as the previous two, there remains little question about his overall value.

Player I’m excited for

Rather than one player, it’s more of a whole era I’m into. The idea of St. Louis finally creating a pathway to promote from within… I mean, they’re sitting on a gold mine. It’s one of the most reliable hotbeds of talent in all of North America.

Notes

  • I imagine they’ll be listening to offers for Cedric Teuchert this winter! He's been maybe the most disappointing non-Mellberg part of an overall disappointing 2025.
  • I’m really curious to see what happens with Henry Kessler’s option. He’s on a big number, but he’s been worth it when he’s been healthy. The problem is he’s only rarely been healthy.

2025 in a nutshell

You knew things would have to go really bad for Sporting KC’s ownership to cut ties with the legend Peter Vermes, and folks… that's exactly what happened. Vermes was on a shorter leash than anyone knew about and was dismissed before the calendar flipped to April.

Kerry Zavagnin has been in charge on an interim basis since then, and while Zavagnin’s gotten them to fight, their place in the standings is a pretty fair reflection of how they’ve performed overall.

What comes next?

The David Lee Era.

The former New York City FC sporting director was announced as Sporting’s new CSO earlier this month, and you didn’t have to read too far between the lines to understand his message was “I want to build a team my way, not the City Football Group way.” And with SKC's roster – so, so many players are out of contract this winter – he’ll get that chance.

Lee will, I’m assuming, recruit much more heavily from Latin America than Sporting traditionally have (it’s been a very European-inflected lineup for SKC over the past decade), and hopefully put a little more emphasis on the SuperDraft. NYCFC have had underrated success there, while SKC have had little since the early 2010s.

What to watch for this winter

A million contracts being declined. It’s entirely possible that Sporting bring back just five players from their senior roster, which… would be a little extreme. But honestly, when a team performs this poorly (they are by far the worst team in the league if you look at the advanced data), you can’t rule out a house-clearing of that magnitude.

I’d also expect them to be fairly busy in free agency. And it’s probably worth noting there are currently several compelling free-agents-to-be at Lee’s old club in The Bronx…

Player I’m excited for

Whether it’s at right back or right center back, it’s cool that 17-year-old academy kid Ian James has gotten good playing time down the stretch. I wonder where (if?) he’ll slot in next season.

Notes

  • Two guys who are under contract for next year are DPs Dejan Joveljić and Manu García. I’d expect both to be foundational pieces moving forward.
  • Should we expect the same for long-time Sporting winger Dániel Sallói? His contract is guaranteed for a good number next season, and I could see there being real interest around the league if Lee decides to shop him.

2025 in a nutshell

I will always remember where I was when I saw this team hold an opponent to zero shots – not shots on goal; zero shots, total!! – and lose 1-0 anyway.

Stunning. Just absolutely stunning.

The Galaxy from the first half of the season were quite possibly the worst team in MLS history. They certainly had the worst MLS Cup hangover in MLS history. They won one of their first 20 games across all competitions and didn’t win their first league game until June 1. Their playoff hopes were essentially extinguished by mid-April.

The Galaxy from the second half of the season have been pretty good! A 10W-8L-6D record with a +8 goal differential across all competitions since that first win, including a third-place finish in Leagues Cup (and the 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup invite that comes with it) as well as a pretty epic, if ultimately futile, Campeones Cup performance against a wagon of a Toluca team.

They’re basically a mid-table playoff team who forgot to come out of the locker room until summer.

What comes next?

Hopefully an offseason announcement that Riqui Puig is 100% healed with zero complications and ready to get back out into the heart of that midfield as soon as preseason begins in January.

Anything else on the list is dwarfed by that announcement.

What to watch for this winter

Believe it or not, they still don’t project to have all that much cap space heading into the offseason, but that’s mitigated by the fact that they’ve finally started developing talent from within. Chris Rindov, Elijah Wynder, Mauricio Cuevas and Harbor Miller are all going to play real minutes next year. They’ve all played huge roles in this second-half turnaround and should serve as clear proof to general manager Will Kuntz and head coach Greg Vanney that the guys you can develop internally are just as good (and often much better than) as guys you’d otherwise go out on the market and overpay for.

Still, though, they do need a center forward, and it shouldn't be Matheus Nascimento, the Brazilian who spent 2025 in Carson on loan and took up a U22 slot. As of now, that’s the only premium roster slot they’ll have available.

Player I’m excited for

I’m excited to watch Riqui play soccer again.

Notes

  • They have a big contract option on Diego Fagúndez, and declining it is their most obvious way to generate real roster flexibility. Fagúndez has been valuable, though, so they’ve got a needle to thread here.
  • They should be willing to use a contract buy-out this offseason, and – without being too mean about it – Zanka has made himself an obvious candidate for that, especially when combined with Rindov proving his ability to play high-level minutes.