With the Wild Card round in the books, the 28th edition of the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs can now start in earnest.
Round One is now a Best-of-3 series, with the higher seed hosting the first and third games (if necessary) and the lower seed getting that second game at home. There’s no extra time in this round, as all games immediately go to penalties if tied after 90 minutes. And a PK shootout win counts exactly the same as a regulation win.
And in case it wasn’t clear, it’s best two out of three. Duh.
All data below is from TruMedia via StatsPerform unless otherwise noted. Let’s go (in order of when the series begin)!
- Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 28 | 5 pm ET (Subaru Park, Apple TV - Free)
- Game 2: Wednesday, Nov. 8 | 7 pm ET (Gillette Stadium, MLS Season Pass/FS1/ FOX Deportes/TSN/RDS)
- Game 3 (if necessary): Sunday, Nov. 12 | 3 pm ET (Subaru Park, MLS Season Pass)
The Union are, by most measures, a very similar team to the group that tore through MLS in the second half of last season. They have just been… worse.
While the main culprits are fatigue and regression (Philly massively overperformed their underlying numbers last year), there are two other places to point the finger:
- Andre Blake has merely been very good in 2023 after being freaking incredible from 2020-22.
- Dániel Gazdag has been… well, I don’t think it’s wrong to want more from your No. 10 than this:
Part of this is Philly’s game model – in such a vertical attack, nobody’s gonna have a pretty radar – but part of this is that, when it comes to providing the final ball, Gazdag has spent a good chunk of the season looking like a guy trying to unlock his front door with his car keys.
Bruce Arena once said that the key to winning in the playoffs is to have your best players be your best players. The Union need that version of Gazdag (and Blake).
There’s not much worry about that within Arena’s old Revs team – Carles Gil’s been as excellent as ever. The issue with New England continues to be finding the right defensive balance, as interim manager Clint Peay has toggled through various lineups and formations over the past two months trying to A) get more of the ball so they can defend via possession, while B) cutting down on the number of chances they’ve allowed.
And that’s the real rub: New England have allowed 518 shots, which is the most in the league, and 186 shots on target, which is also the most in the league.
Philly would absolutely love to turn this game into a shooting gallery.
- Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 28 | 8 pm ET (BMO Stadium, Apple TV - Free)
- Game 2: Sunday, Nov. 5 | 7:30 pm ET (BC Place, MLS Season Pass/FS1/ Fox Deportes/TSN/RDS)
- Game 3 (if necessary): Thursday, Nov. 9 | 10 pm ET (BMO Stadium, MLS Season Pass)
LAFC have fully morphed from a flowing, possession team to a ruthless, front-foot, direct, high-pressing team in two years under head coach Steve Cherundolo. That doesn’t mean they don’t want the ball – they’re at 51.1% possession on the season.
But they’re winning it higher than ever before, and are second only to the Red Bulls in possessions won in the attacking third. Because they’re winning the ball so high so often, their passes per possession is very low, at just 3.2 per. That’s 20th in the league.
And so in the process, they’ve been getting the ball into good spots more quickly and more often, which means they’re settling for crosses less often than ever before, and less often than any team in the league. Their cross ratio (the percentage of passes into the box that are crosses) is just 25.4%, down from 28.1% last year.
Not all crosses are bad, of course – I am, in fact, old enough to remember how last year’s MLS Cup ended. But being selective with your crossing is a good way to create better chances, and to avoid setting yourself up to get countered.
In Andrés Cubas Vancouver have a one-man counterattack-wrecking-machine, and the good news is the Paraguayan d-mid has been back training with the first team and, according to a team spokesperson, “should be an option on the weekend.” Cubas has a Diego Chara or Tyler Adams-esque ability to rapidly process where on the field pressure needs to happen to smother an opposing counter in the crib. The biggest value he adds is in the dearth of negative-value events that take place for the ‘Caps when he’s on the pitch.
All of that keys Vancouver’s attack, which is one of the best in the league by both the boxscore numbers and underlying numbers. The thing to understand about the ‘Caps is they are the most efficient team in the league once they get into the final third – 42% of their final-third passes are either into or actually originate from within the box itself. As such they have become an xG machine.
So expect things on both ends to move quickly.
- Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 29 | 6 pm ET (Shell Energy Stadium, Apple TV - Free)
- Game 2: Monday, Nov. 6 | 9 pm ET (America First Field, MLS Season Pass)
- Game 3 (if necessary): Saturday, Nov. 11 | 4 pm ET (Shell Energy Stadium, MLS Season Pass)
Houston’s season has largely defied statistical analysis because they’re such a vibes team. What I mean by that is when things are going well for them they get a ton of the ball and dictate play, as you’d expect of a team with maybe the most skillful central midfield in the league. But when the game’s gone, they’re entirely happy to pack up shop, play against the ball and trust the hell out of Steve Clark in goal.
So if you’re looking for one thing to drill down on, it’s tough. However, I’ve got one for you:
See how Houston compress the pitch and open up the entire flank for right back Griffin Dorsey, who’s been a killer pushing into the attack? That’s by design – 30.8% of the passes Houston complete in the attacking third come in the middle of the pitch, which is the second-highest mark in the league. The idea is to do… well, that.
They’re so good at it, and they do it all the time. There’s like a dozen other clips I could’ve used here.
There are basically no clips I can use to illustrate anything about RSL, because RSL are still trying to figure out who they are without the irreplaceable (that’s not a word I’m just throwing in there for no reason; they literally have not been able to replace him) Pablo Ruiz.
Their best idea right now might be to try to replicate what they did on Decision Day, when they shifted to the 3-5-2 for the first time in months and put Diego Luna at the 10:
At this point, the future might as well be now.
- Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 29 | 8 pm ET (TQL Stadium, Apple TV - Free/FS1/ FOX Deportes /TSN, RDS)
- Game 2: Saturday, Nov. 4 | 7 pm ET (Red Bull Arena, MLS Season Pass)
- Game 3 (if necessary): Saturday, Nov. 11 | 2 pm ET (TQL Stadium, MLS Season Pass)
I’m just going to recycle what I said about RBNY before they pounded the hell out of Charlotte in the Wild Card: They have turned about 90% of the games they’ve played this year into Red Bull games – i.e. demolition derby. And by virtue of doing that, they control games, create chances and generally dictate how things play out.
The fundamental thing underlying all of this is their relentless high press. They’ve led the league in high turnovers forced every year since 2015, and this is what it looks like when you’re not ready to fight for your life for every 50/50 (or 40/60 or 30/70):
That is the whole story of that 5-2 win over the Crown: RBNY won a typical amount of duels in the attacking half and, for once, converted it into multiple goals.
Cincy are not immune to that. They’re 17th in the league in possessions lost in their defensive third, and 25th in possessions lost in the middle third. Note that this isn’t them being careless with the ball all the time, but is actually more born of their own commitment to a version of Energy Drink Soccer – changes of possession are baked into the system.
What the Supporters’ Shield winners are extremely good at is not letting those lost possessions turn into chances. They’ve allowed just 128 shots on goal this year, which is tied for fourth-best in the league, and allow only 1.05 xG per shot, which is tied for 10th-best. Seattle are the only other team with Cincy in the top five of that first metric and the top 10 of the second.
All of that sets the table for Lucho and the forwards (and the wingbacks) to cook. It’s less scripted movements (though always be on the lookout for Lucho to drop deep along the left touchline and then spray a diagonal to the right wingback) than it is just letting talented players feel where, in the structure, the game’s available for the taking.
Know who it really reminds me of in that respect? 2017 Toronto FC.
That’s a very big compliment.
- Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 29 | 10 pm ET (CITYPARK, Apple TV - Free/FS1/ FOX Deportes /TSN/RDS)
- Game 2: Sunday, Nov. 5 | 5 pm ET (Children's Mercy Park, MLS Season Pass)
- Game 3 (if necessary): Saturday, Nov. 11 | 6 pm ET (CITYPARK, MLS Season Pass)
St. Louis are, by one metric, an even more direct team than the Red Bulls: they advance the ball at 1.82 meters/second, fastest in the league by a mile. They win the ball (deeper than RBNY win it, by the way – they’re more of a “midfield ambush” team than a “high pressing” team) and they GO.
Head coach Bradley Carnell has talked about this at length in various postgame pressers this year, often saying that the halftime adjustment he asked for from his team was for them to pass less and run more. As such they were always attacking the channels, and when they did that with numbers, they tended to generate goals.
So, what happened down the stretch when the attack went dry (shut out in three of their last five)? I think it comes down to fickle gods of variance and regression to the mean. For as high-scoring as St. Louis were for most of the season, they were just 17th in xG generated. Nobody outperforms their numbers (by as much as St. Louis did, anyway) forever.
As for Sporting, I’m going to borrow a bit from my preview of their Wild Card match against the Quakes: Since May 7, Sporting are seventh in the league in possession (possession matters a ton to this team, who spend a lot of time defending with the ball instead of chasing it) and are third in passing accuracy. They’re first in passing accuracy in the final third.
The cheap turnovers and transition run-outs that killed them in the first two months of the season basically don’t exist anymore.
While those cheap turnovers from possession aren’t a thing anymore, Sporting are still too eager to have a shot from way outside the box:
That was from their PK shootout win over the Quakes. And it’s just not great to have such a green light from way downtown – blocked shots can and often do lead to counterattacks.
Only 57.8% of KC’s shots this year were from inside the 18, which was the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Obviously the San Jose game was an outlier even against that number, but it’s something to watch out for.
- Game 1: Monday, Oct. 30 | 7 pm ET (Exploria Stadium, Apple TV - Free/FS1/ FOX Deportes /TSN/RDS)
- Game 2: Tuesday, Nov. 7 | 9 pm ET (GEODIS Park, MLS Season Pass)
- Game 3 (if necessary): Sunday, Nov. 12 | 5 pm ET (Exploria Stadium, MLS Season Pass)
Here’s what the underlying numbers say about Orlando City, and for the record, I think this all matches the eye test:
• They split attacking middle- and defensive-third touches fairly evenly. So they’re not exactly a build-from-the-back team, nor are they are pressing team, nor are they a counterattacking team.
• They go down the right 30% of the time (that number has been climbing in recent weeks since Dagur Dan Thórhallsson has won the starting RB job), down the left 35% of the time (that number’s been dropping a bit) and up the center 35% of the time.
• 14% of their passes are progressive, which is sixth in the league. So they can tend towards directness, even if they don’t force it.
• Their average possession is in the widest spots in the league, which speaks to how involved the fullbacks are and how crucial the wingers are.
• They’re near the league average in crosses, passes into the box and non-cross passes into the box.
• They’re around league average in terms of shots inside the box at 61%.
As I’ve written before, it’s not that Orlando are particularly, definitively great at anything: it’s that they’re bad at nothing. And also they’ve got a goalscorer in pretty decent form!
None of Nashville’s goalscorers are in good form, and they’ve been one of the worst teams in the league since July.
I don’t care. They’ve got Dax McCarty well-rested and back in the engine room, and I think the version of the ‘Yotes we saw in Leagues Cup is the real version of them, not the miserable bunch from the regular season.
So expect the usual dose of low-block-and-counter through Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge. Nashville have the lowest field tilt in the league (field tilt is the share of final-third passes you hit) at 40.8%, and that (plus Mukhtar’s excellence) tells you everything you need to know about their blueprint.
- Game 1: Monday, Oct. 30 | 9 pm ET (Lumen Field, Apple TV - Free/FS1/ Fox Deportes/TSN/RDS)
- Game 2: Saturday, Nov. 4 | 9 pm ET (Toyota Stadium, MLS Season Pass)
- Game 3 (if necessary): Friday, Nov. 10 | 10 pm ET (Lumen Field, MLS Season Pass)
Scroll back up to the Cincy section and you’ll see some nice stats about the Sounders: that they’re inside the top five of both shots on target allowed and xG allowed per shot. And that undersells it, actually, because Seattle are second in shots on target allowed and fourth in xG allowed per shot (0.09).
To put that into some context: only RBNY allowed fewer shots on target than Seattle. They were 29th – dead last – in xG allowed per shot (0.141).
It should not surprise anyone that Seattle have a championship-caliber defense. Stefan Frei hasn’t gotten old yet, Jackson Ragen and Yeimar are two of the ~eight best CBs in the league, João Paulo is back to his pre-injury best, and the fullbacks are very good.
The question is very obviously their attack. The return to health of Cristian Roldan has juiced it on both ends:
Dallas are like a poor man’s version of Seattle in that they’ve emphasized balance and pitch control all year, and have done so (IMO) at the expense of attacking dynamism and, you know, goals.
I don’t have the data to back this up yet (god I miss Second Spectrum) but it feels like, with the addition of Asier Illarramendi, the return to health of Paxton Pomykal and the switch to a 4-2-3-1, head coach Nico Estévez has loosened the reins a little bit. Dallas look like they have license to actually send multiple runners into the box these days:
I have some doubts about whether this will translate to a playoff game against a very-much-alive Sounders team (as opposed to a regular-season game against an all-dead Galaxy team), but either way, playing with more urgency is good for Dallas. Their direct speed of 1.25 meters/second is 25th-fastest in the league, and while that often serves a (defensive) purpose… get forward. Take some chances.
Fortune favors the bold.
- Game 1: Wednesday, Nov. 1 | 7:30 pm ET (Lower.com Field, Apple TV - Free/FS1/ Fox Deportes/TSN/RDS)
- Game 2: Tuesday, Nov. 7 | 7 pm ET (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, MLS Season Pass)
- Game 3 (if necessary): Sunday, Nov. 12 | 7 pm ET (Lower.com Field, MLS Season Pass)
Columbus are first in possession, second in touches, second in average passes per possession sequence and third in average time per sequence.
They are first in xG, third in xA, and first – by a mile – in non-penalty XG. And so they’re first in touches inside the opponent’s box per 90, and oh yeah, they’re first in goals.
This isn’t born of a system of play from head coach Wilfried Nancy; it’s born instead of his principles of play. He does not encourage one-touch soccer, but rather two or three-touch soccer. He demands his players, from the backline to the front, be brave as hell on the ball, invite pressure and play through it. Once that first line of pressure is broken, it’s off to the races, throwing numbers forward at speed.
The shape matters, as they’re always in a 3-4-2-1 or a 3-4-1-2 with flying wingbacks, two deep central midfielders (who will stride forward on the ball at will) and a hyper-mobile front three.
This is just about the Platonic ideal of a Crew goal:
Yeah, they’d already taken the mickey out of Cincy well before this one. But look at how brave and unhurried they are on the ball throughout.
It’s beautiful. It’s why they’re every neutral’s favorite team to watch this season.
Another reason they’re every neutral’s favorite team to watch is because even when they’re balling, they tend to leave the door open. Only Charlotte dropped more points from winning positions this year. Columbus are a much better team, but are not exactly a much better defensive team and like the Crown, they’re not built to defend deep. When they start packing it in, they have problems.
That’s a lifeline for an Atlanta side that are trying to be everything that Columbus are. They’re up near the top in all those same attacking stats I rattled off, though the difference is while the Crew’s attack is more diffuse, Atlanta’s attack largely runs through Thiago Almada. He took 21.1% of the Five Stripes’ touches in the attacking third, as per American Soccer Analysis, which was the fourth-highest mark in the league.
It all runs through him, and unfortunately, he got one of the dumber red cards in recent memory on Decision Day and will be suspended for Game 1.
I don’t think there’s any sense in trying to make a like-for-like replacement. If I’m Gonzalo Pineda, I'd consider trying to dig up another ball-winner to start alongside Tristan Muyumba and Matheus Rossetto in central midfield and go pure smash-and-grab.
Atlanta aren’t particularly good at that. But, well, they’re not good at much without Almada, so trying to keep it tight makes the most sense to me.
