MLS Cup tomorrow
Hey. MLS Cup is tomorrow. Seems like a big deal. Coverage is set to begin tomorrow at 4 p.m. ET on FOX, Univision and TUDN.
San Diego, Las Vegas expansion in "active discussions"
Major League Soccer aims to finalize its 30th team “sometime in the first half” of 2023, Commissioner Don Garber said Thursday, continuing expansion for top-flight men’s soccer in the United States and Canada. While Las Vegas remains a serious candidate, there is a renewed push from San Diego. Garber provided that update at his annual State of the League address, speaking some 120 miles north of the Californian border city as LAFC and the Philadelphia Union prepare to play the MLS Cup 2022 Final on Saturday at Banc of California Stadium (4 pm ET | FOX, Univision in US; TSN, TVA Sports in Canada).
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There are two types of people in the world. Some of us ask questions. Some of us are bold enough to try and answer them, even if we answer them wrong.
Tom looked at the 10 biggest questions for MLS Cup in this very good piece here, and I figured, well, hey, these are good questions. What if we try to answer them before they even happen? If I do this right, you won’t even have to watch MLS Cup………………….oh, wait, hold on y’all, getting some notes here from the folks up top, excuse me for one second……….uh-huh……..right……yes…..yep…….fired?...........out of a catapult?.....uh-huh…..right….ok, yep, got it, thanks.
Ok, actually, I’ve been told that they’d still really really really like you to watch MLS Cup please and thank you. Make sure you still do that please. Now, let’s answer Tom’s questions.
1. How much of a tilt will homefield advantage be?
Tom makes a lot of good points here.
“Of the last five MLS Cups, just one road team had a trophy celebration… Since MLS switched to hosting priorities going to the higher seed in 2011, just one road team has won without penalties (2015 Portland).”
It’s a small sample size, but right now homefield advantage in MLS Cup is outweighing general homefield advantage throughout MLS. At the end of 2018, MLS homefield advantage came out to about 0.7 goals per game in favor of the home team. That’s the highest mark of any top league in the world. In MLS Cup, that advantage is currently coming in at 1.18 goals in favor of the home team. Home teams aren’t just winning, they’re winning. Especially, recently. Four of the last five MLS Cups have seen the home team win by two goals or more.
Again, a lot of caveats about sample size and game state and other things there. But It’s Tom’s first question because it might just be the single most important question. When there’s next-to-nothing separating these teams, something has to.
2. The year of Andre Blake?
Yes. Yes it is, Tom. Well, kind of. Either way, I feel like we haven’t talked enough about how good Blake has been exactly.
Now, he didn’t face nearly as many shots as New England’s Djordje Petrović, but on a shot-by-shot basis, Blake and Petrovic are the lone members of an exclusive tier of keeper this season. There is a statistically significant drop off in the shot-stopping numbers from Blake and Petrovic to very, very good keepers like Portland’s Aljaz Ivacic and Austin’s Brad Stuver. If you put them on a scatter plot, they would be wayyyyy over in a corner by themselves.
If we’re looking at this game and this season alone, Blake is a massive advantage for Philadelphia. Among starting keepers, Blake finished second in the league in shot-stopping, right next to Petrovic. Both are in their own stratosphere. LAFC’s Maxime Crépeau finished 19th, allowing more goals than the quality of chances he faced suggests he should have allowed. Is that advantage enough to go ahead and cancel out homefield? In my mind, it might be.
3. Big-game Vela?
I have straight up no idea what kind of performance Carlos Vela will put in tomorrow, but I do know we can all agree that Vela is really good at this. We can maybe even agree that players being “clutch” isn’t a thing that actually exists and that good players are just more likely to have good outcomes because they’re good no matter the situation.
In this particular situation, Vela will be a critical part of LAFC’s ability to overload the wide areas of Philly’s 4-4-2 diamond and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him strike a decisive blow.
4. Who will win transition moments?
It’s a great question! One that Tom calls his “biggest tactical question.” Again, we won’t know until we know, but let’s take a look at the numbers to see if we can get an idea of who has an advantage.
Defensively, the Union were first in transition goals allowed with 21, but fifth in xG allowed in transition with nearly 28 expected goals allowed. That difference is Andre Blake’s doing. Meanwhile, LAFC were second in transition goals allowed with 22 and first in xG allowed in transition with a little over 21 expected goals allowed. LAFC limited transition chances more effectively, but the Union have Blake. We’ll call it a toss-up defensively. I’m sure we’ll sort things out in attack though.
In attack… the Union and LAFC are tied for first in the league with 52 goals in transition. Sheesh. It should be noted here though that LAFC reached that mark on 50 xG, while the Union greatly outperformed their xG, creating just 39 expected goals. I’m going to give the slight advantage to LAFC here. Man, these teams are good though.
5. Who will win on set pieces?
Looking at the numbers annnddddd hey would you look at that, they’re tied for third in the league on goals scored from set pieces this season. These two teams have gotten to all the same answers, but the formula to get those answers has been drastically different. It’s fascinating.
Anyway, defensively this is a huge area of advantage for Philly. They allowed just two goals from set pieces all year. I’m gonna bet that’s an MLS record. Meanwhile, LAFC finished 22nd in the league, allowing 12 goals from set pieces.
6. What role can Bedoya or Bale play?
I’m not a doctor. I will say though that Bedoya’s availability is far more important than Bale’s. Jack McGlynn is another future star direct from the Philadelphia Midfielder Laboratory, but Bedoya will have his number retired in Philly for a reason. It’s a major blow if he’s not there to help the Union control the game.
7. What to expect from José Martinez?
Some outstanding tackles, a yellow card after like his fifth foul, breaking up a potential fight with a look of shock and disgust on his face at the thought of violence, starting a potential fight, maybe deciding the entire game by himself, etc. You know, the usual.
8. Will Giorgio Chiellini start? How would that impact the game?
Seems like a big deal! As Matt Doyle noted in his tactical column, if Chiellini can’t go, LAFC are likely down to their fourth-string center back, Sebastien Ibeagha. The good news is that Ibeagha is pretty good. The bad news is, he’s the fourth-string center back going up against a Union team whose whole deal is that they ask questions of the defense every single time they get the ball. It will be a massive task to face if Chiellini can’t go.
9. High-scoring affair?
If any team is going to get past playoff Andre Blake, it’s this LAFC team. They’ve been relatively successful at it in past regular season meetings. But it’s really, really hard to see this going off the rails. Which I think favors…
10. Who gets the Hollywood sendoff?
Homefield advantage is a big deal. But you might have picked up on the fact that I think having Blake is a bigger deal. I’m picking the Union.
Oh, hey, Tom did too! We’re… we’re all going to get memed again, aren’t we?
Matarrita, Oviedo, Chacón named in Costa Rica World Cup squad: Major League Soccer officially has its first confirmed representatives at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. Defenders Ronald Matarrita (FC Cincinnati), Bryan Oviedo (Real Salt Lake) and Daniel Chacón (Colorado Rapids 2) were included in Costa Rica's 26-man roster for the tournament, where they'll compete in Group E with Spain, Japan and Germany.
Steres signs contract extension with Houston Dynamo: The Houston Dynamo have locked up Daniel Steres for at least the next two years, signing the defender to a contract extension through the 2024 season, with an option for 2025. The 31-year-old veteran scored two goals and added an assist in 18 games (14 starts) this season with the Dynamo, who acquired him prior to the 2022 campaign in a trade with the LA Galaxy.
- Jonathan Sigal collected untold stories of Miguel Almiron’s time in Atlanta.
- Meet Ernst Tanner, the man behind the Philadelphia Union's ascent to the MLS elite.
- Tom “Scoop, Scoop, Scoopadelphia” Bogert looked at 10 big questions ahead of MLS Cup 2022.
- Leeds United's Jesse Marsch predicted an MLS Cup winner while talking to the good folks at Extratime.
- Charles Boehm honed in on some USMNT comforts and concerns as the World Cup rapidly approaches.
- Xherdan Shaqiri says that Switzerland are among the "underdogs" at the World Cup.
Good luck out there. Don’t take Bruce Arena’s sevens if that opportunity comes to you today. Just…don’t do it.
