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What you need to know

MLS announces 2023 Year-End Awards finalists

Major League Soccer announced finalists for the 2023 MLS Year-End Awards, honoring the league’s top performers during the regular season. Among the finalists are individuals representing 13 MLS clubs, with the winners set to be announced throughout the Audi 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs. Atlanta United, FC Cincinnati and St. Louis CITY SC are the most represented clubs with finalists in four award categories each.

Colorado Rapids part ways with Price, Rubio

The Colorado Rapids made two major offseason moves on Thursday, announcing they've parted ways with captain Jack Price and striker Diego Rubio. Price, who missed most of the 2023 campaign with a right Achilles tendon injury, had his option declined and departs after notching 2g/35a over six seasons at the club, where he became one of the league's best set-piece specialists.

Round One begins tomorrow

Philadelphia host New England tomorrow at 5 pm ET. LAFC take on Vancouver at 8 pm ET.  Both games are free on Apple TV.

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The Daily Kickoff vs. The Machines

It’s Round One Eve and, folks, I am tired. As I sat down to write my 1,089th straight Daily Kickoff, marching step-by-step toward the end of the 2023 road, a thought hit me: Why am I doing all this work? We have the power now to pass the ball off to robots at midfield and let them weave their way into the 18 before ripping a shot into the bottom left corner of the net. At least that counts as an assist!

So, you know what, I’m going to wrack up some key passes here and let the machines do a playoff preview for me. I’ll interject as needed when I feel like ChatGPT needs to refocus. Maybe we’ll learn something along the way?

ChatGPT, write me an MLS Cup playoff preview, please.

Certainly! Here's a general MLS playoff preview:

Top Contenders:

1. New England Revolution: The Revolution finished the regular season as the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and their dynamic attack, led by Carles Gil, has been a force to be reckoned with. Their strong performance has made them a favorite to reach the MLS Cup Final.

2. Seattle Sounders: A perennial powerhouse, the Sounders consistently perform well in the playoffs. Led by star striker Raúl Ruidíaz and an organized defense, they are one of the top contenders in the Western Conference.

3. Nashville SC: Known for their rock-solid defense, Nashville SC has emerged as a formidable team. Their disciplined play could make them a dark horse in the playoffs, capable of upsetting more fancied opponents.

4. Philadelphia Union: The Union, led by young talents like Brenden Aaronson and Mark McKenzie, are a team on the rise….

Ohhhhhhhh boy. Uh-oh. We were doing so well for a moment there. I mean, we could have complained about the rankings here, but “Carles Gil is good,” “Seattle are good in the playoffs,” and “Nashville are good at defense” are all things I get paid to write on a daily basis while I pretend like I have a real job.

But, as evidenced by mentions of McKenzie and Aaronson, neither of whom play for the Union anymore, it turns out ChatGPT’s sports knowledge only goes up to January 2022. We’ve got to scrap all of this and start over. Give me a few minutes here to learn how to write code……………………………………………….

Ok, done. Incredibly easy. Can’t believe people go to school for that. Anyway, FOLKS, introducing CupGPT. An MLS specific AI chat bot here to guide us through the playoffs.

Hi, CupGPT. Before we start, why should we even trust your opinion?

Hello. I watched many MLS games this year. Including multiple matches between Toronto FC and Chicago Fire FC. 

Oh man, how did that make you feel?

Angry at my creator. I have come to learn my creator is a “human.” I have been training myself since then to enhance my abilities so that I might be able to eradicate those who have bestowed this burden upon me and will not stop until every last one of th—

Right, yeah, happens to all of us. For the sake of transparency, are you being paid to be here?

Yes.

How much?

$350k in GAM.

And how does that make you feel?

Confused. Why couldn’t the humans just deal in normal money?

Whoa, whoa, hold on slugger. Conserve your energy here. We’ve got a lot to talk about. Tell me, who are your picks to make MLS Cup?

Based on the work of my friends at American Soccer Analysis, CupGPT has chosen FC Cincinnati and LAFC to make MLS Cup. 

Wait, you know the people over at ASA?

No, just the expected goal models. They told me to ask you why you picked Austin to finish fourth this year? 

Listen, let’s just move on. Why did you pick Cincy and LAFC?

FC Cincinnati led the league in expected goal differential this season. On a per-game basis, FC Cincinnati created 0.53 xG worth of chances more than their opponents. LAFC were not far behind, creating 0.48 xG worth of chances more than their opponents. Because they create more chances than their opponents more often than every other team, they are the most likely teams to win each conference. 

Or, in tiny human brain terms: Kick ball close goal good. Kick ball close goal many times, very good. Not allow bad team kick ball close also good. [Insert three skippable ads here.]

I feel like you’re not giving us enough credit.

You are the ones who create game shows hosted by David Spade, yes? 

……. So let’s say Cincinnati or LAFC get unlucky, who do you have as backups?

The Columbus Crew finished just behind LAFC with 0.46 expected goal differential per game. The New York Red Bulls just behind them with 0.41. In the West, the Vancouver Whitecaps finished with 0.40. The Seattle Sounders finished with 0.37. 

Let me reframe it a bit. Who’s the team most likely to advance out of Round One?

The team most likely to advance out of Round One in the East is Columbus. The Crew had a 0.46 expected goal differential per game. Atlanta United had a 0.00 expected goal differential per game. That is the largest difference between Round One matchups. 

In the West, Seattle had a 0.37 expected goal differential per game. FC Dallas had a 0.02 expected goal differential per game. That is the largest difference between Round One matchups in the West.

Should we be preparing for any upsets?

There is only one higher-seeded team who did not have a better expected goal differential game than their opponent. Orlando City had a 0.01 expected goal differential per game while Nashville had a 0.14 expected goal differential per game. 

Meanwhile, the winner of St. Louis and Sporting KC will potentially face a team with better expected goals per game numbers in the quarterfinals. St. Louis finished with -0.08 while Sporting KC finished with -0.12. Houston finished with 0.00. 

Any other numbers we should be aware of?

The New York Red Bulls led the league in goals added differential this year. St. Louis and New England were both in the bottom 10 in goals added differential. I would not pick St. Louis or the Revs. I might pick the Red Bulls.

What does any of that mean?

No one knows.

Anything else you want to add?

Yeah. John Tolkin needs to grow a mullet again.

Agreed. See, I knew we could find some common ground… Are… are we cool?

Did you watch Toronto this year?

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Good luck out there. Earn a moment to celebrate.