USMNT advance in Gold Cup over Canada
The US men’s national team defeated Canada at FC Cincinnati’s TQL Stadium Sunday night and advanced to the Concacaf Gold Cup semifinals 3-2 on penalties after the rivals played to a 2-2 draw following 120 minutes.
Atlanta loan Ibarra to Toronto
After going beyond the three-player limit for U22 Initiative signings, Atlanta have become roster compliant by loaning defensive midfielder Franco Ibarra to Toronto FC through the end of the 2023 MLS season.
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Another Matchday gone and we’ve officially reached the point of the season where many of our established understandings of who teams are and how good they can actually be are challenged for seemingly no real particular reason. How can you not be romantic about MLS?
There were a handful of surprises this weekend. Let’s talk it out.
LA took down Philly and LAFC in the same week. If we’re basing it on points in the regular season over the last few years, that can be reframed to “LA took down the two most consistently successful teams in MLS in the same week.” That’s a huge deal. It shows what they’re capable of when things are actually clicking, and when luck is breaking their way.
We haven’t mentioned it in a while because generally at this point you are who your record says you are and because the vibes around the team have been atrocious up until this week. But LA’s underlying numbers project them to be about seven points better than they actually are and to have a totally normal +1 goal differential instead of a -10. If the underlying numbers were a lot more overlying, that would basically make them more FC Dallas than a team needing to scrap and claw their way up the standings to escape from a possible Wooden Spoon win.
Still, they’re working from a position with little leverage. They have a long way to go to truly get back into this one. They’ll likely need about 42 points to get into the ninth spot, and that means something close to 1.54 points per game from here on out. That’s right around LAFC’s current season-long place. On top of that, the Secondary Transfer Window restrictions they’re currently under have limited their options for improving areas of need.
That being said, it’s not like this roster is terrible. They genuinely have one of the best midfield units in the league. Riqui Puig will get all the attention after an outstanding week, but Gaston Brugman is incredibly underrated. He’s been one of the more effective midfielders in MLS this year. It’s honestly shocking they’ve managed to be quite this bad with those two on the team. They might just be able to carry LA the rest of the way.
Them and… Tyler Boyd? He had an excellent week as well, as did Douglas Costa. Finally, LA’s wingers started producing. I have no idea if that will continue, but the Galaxy will be so much better if it does.
At the very least, we’ve reached a realm of plausibility for LA that didn’t really seem all that possible last week. They can clearly compete with any team in the league when they’re on. But can they stay on?
After a number of upsets this week, I count one, two, three, four… five teams tied for the ninth and final Audi MLS Cup Playoffs spot in the East. Amazing. What a league.
Anyway, real quick, let’s speed run a check-in on the probability of each team rising to the top and claiming that last spot:
CF Montréal: Just brought in Mahala Opoku, but can’t win on the road and have lost two straight at home after being excellent there all year. Feeling decent, but not good about their chances.
Chicago Fire FC: Oh honey, they’re just going to hurt you.
Charlotte FC: They looked sharp for a while against FC Cincinnati this weekend, but blew an early two-goal lead. They just don’t have the defensive chops. Unless they make big moves in this window, that won’t change.
NYCFC: They’ve played more games than everyone in this group and honestly just seem kind of jinxed this year. Still, a striker could change so much for them if they find him this window.
New York Red Bulls: A team that literally has some of the best underlying numbers in the history of the league. I’m not joking. American Soccer Analysis’ Goals Added metric has them right up there with 2018 Atlanta United and not too far behind 2019 LAFC. Their plain old xG numbers aren’t quite at that level, but still some of the best in the league. I’ll take them versus the field. Honestly, they might even have enough in them to catch D.C. in eighth.
Told y’all. Feels good to get one right. Probably feels pretty good for RSL fans to watch Chicho Arango almost immediately find the net in his first start. And after a huge 4-0 win over Orlando, it’s starting to feel like RSL might have the juice to truly challenge for the top spot in the West.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying they will. But they definitely seem like at least a team set to earn a spot in the top four. They’re only five points back from St. Louis. It’s not hard to envision them continuing to grab plenty of points over their final 12 games and pushing for a surprise finish at the top. Obviously, LAFC, Seattle and St. Louis will have plenty to say about that, but no one in that group has been perfect this year. RSL could easily sneak in and find themselves in a place reminiscent of 2021 Colorado.
- Jonathan Sigal’s Sunday column is up and good.
- Ben Wright has your USMNT player ratings.
- Matt Turner is proving to be a Gold Cup difference-maker for the US men's national team.
- LA Galaxy are getting the "best of" Riqui Puig right now.
- Léo Chú showed off his "lights-out" potential in a huge Seattle Sounders' win.
- Chicho Arango made an instant impact in his Real Salt Lake debut.
- Sebastián Driussi denied a Pukki party as Austin FC routed Minnesota United.
Good luck out there. Reintroduce yourself when necessary.
