Red Bulls upset Columbus, Seattle advance
In one of the most shocking outcomes in playoff history, New York outlasted Columbus in penalties to take down the Crew for the second game in a row and advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals. They’ll face the winner of Cincinnati-New York City. Meanwhile, out west, Seattle squeezed by Houston in penalties for the second-straight game. They’re waiting on the winner of LAFC-Vancouver.
Vancouver stun LAFC
The Whitecaps scored twice inside the first 15 minutes as they rolled to a 3-0 win over LAFC. The series will head back to LA now for Game 3. Kickoff is set for Friday night at 11 pm ET (MLS Season Pass).
Higher seeds have never felt less safe. Let’s talk it out.
Oh. My god.
If you had asked me to rank each matchup in the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs by upset probability, this one might have been last. It’s not just that the Red Bulls are famous for their lack of playoff success and it’s not just the fact they were going up against a team that’s made every final possible over the last year. It’s mostly the fact New York had picked up 0.67 points per game over their final nine games of the season. Only Chicago had a worse run of form post-Leagues Cup.
It doesn’t get much better if you look at what the Red Bulls did after the midway point of the season. They earned just 1.06 points per game over that stretch, the worst mark of any playoff team.
So, what happened here?
Well, for one, like a top-three upset in MLS history. I don’t have knowledge of the deep lore like some other folks who have been watching MLS since the Tampa Bay Mutiny, but I’m struggling to remember a more shocking outcome.
That being said, we had talked a few times about how the Red Bulls’ underlying numbers suggested they were actually much better than their record. We had talked a few times about how a healthy Emil Forsberg could be the missing ingredient for this team. We had never considered the thought that any of that meant they could hang with the Crew over three games.
To be fair though, that disastrous post-Leagues Cup run? They averaged 1.66 expected points per game over that stretch. Only Portland, Orlando and Columbus had better underlying numbers. The second half of the season? They averaged 1.64 expected points per game. Only LAFC had better underlying numbers.
The problem was that this team had given us no reason to believe them. That’s not just this year, they had outstanding underlying numbers last year too. It didn’t mean much. And it hadn’t meant much for half a season. Even when Forsberg came back after a lengthy absence, it wouldn’t have been rational to think this team would suddenly have the juice to take down an all-time great MLS side.
For a moment, it really seemed like they wouldn’t. When the Crew scored late to equalize, everyone had the same thought: That’s so Metro. It was also extremely Columbus. There were no surprises. But the penalty shootout had a few surprises up its sleeve. The Crew were set to put this away and get this series back to Columbus, but Carlos Coronel came up big with a save. Then he did it two more times. The Red Bulls somehow overcame their demons against a team that has refused to die.
That doesn’t mean they’re bound to win MLS Cup for the first time or anything, but we’re not going to deny any Red Bulls fan the catharsis of this moment. For a little while anyway, they get to sit back and enjoy being on the other side of a Metro Moment.
Meanwhile, the Crew are going to have to do an autopsy. I’ll be honest: I’m not sure we’ll learn anything other than “sometimes ball go in.” But that doesn’t change the fact we may have just seen the door close on one of the most impressive teams ever. What if that’s the last we see of Cucho Hernández? What if that’s the last we see of Wilfried Nancy? There’s a slight but real chance this offseason becomes transformative for Columbus. That possibility always existed. Now it just exists with a much more disappointing ending than expected.
Someone finally scored! It just happened to be Cristian Roldan both times!
It only took 177 minutes of play between these two for someone to finally find the net. And it probably only happened because Houston went down to 10 men after a bizarre sequence that saw Héctor Herrera ejected for spitting toward a ref.
Houston still found a way back into the game thanks to an own goal from Roldan. They didn’t have enough luck in the end though. Seattle advanced on penalties and that’s that for the Dynamo this year. Herrera’s red card made it an unceremonious exit.
Seattle survived though. They’ll face the winner of LAFC-Vancouver in the next round. At some point, they’re going to have to figure out at least a couple of things in attack if they want to keep advancing.
Well then.
The Whitecaps heard y’all (me) talking trash, I guess. Full credit, they’ve totally lived up to the moment with their backs against the wall twice now in this postseason. That’s not their typical MO, but this seems to be a ‘Caps side that’s built a little different. They flipped this game on its head from the jump and didn’t look back. In two games where they’ve been on the brink of elimination, they’ve put together an aggregate scoreline of 8-0 in their favor.
It’s a good team that’s seemed to find a bit of a groove in the postseason. LAFC are in real danger here. They aren’t playing poorly, but they aren’t playing their best ball either. It doesn’t help that Olivier Giroud continues to just kind of be there. Their “season-changing” summer signing is still looking for his first MLS goal.
The Whitecaps have a real chance to pull off the biggest MLS upset since, well, the one that happened last night. But still, it would be one of the more remarkable outcomes in MLS history if they can pull this off. All it takes is a tie and penalty shootout. They’re more than up for this and they definitely seem sick of the narrative around them. A good team with a chip on its shoulder is a scary thing.
- The Whitecaps are alive after routing LAFC.
- The Sounders pushed past the Dynamo.
- New York defied the odds to deny Columbus a shot at a repeat title.
Good luck out there. Surprise some folks.
