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What you need to know

Final Game 1s of Round One tonight

Columbus host the Red Bulls at 6:45 pm ET (Apple TV - Free) and Real Salt Lake welcome Minnesota United at 8:50 pm ET (Apple TV - Free). Both matches can also be watched on FS1 and FS2 (Spanish) in the US, as well as TSN and RDS in Canada.

Nashville, Toronto announce end-of-year moves

Nashville SC and Toronto FC have announced their end-of-year roster moves. Take a look at each decision here.

The recap

Cincy throttled NYCFC and Seattle snuck past Houston on penalty kicks. Let’s talk it out.

FC CINCINNATI - 1 | NEW YORK CITY FC - 0
Y. Asad (51') | T. Gray (Red Card 90+9')

It only ended 1-0 but it could have been much, much worse for NYCFC. Cincy out-created them 3.7 xG to 0.3 xG and were in total control of this one from start to finish. NYCFC’s only saving grace here is they get to go back home for Game 2. They had the second-best home record in the Eastern Conference this season.

They did themselves no favors late in this one, though. Tayvon Gray picked up a straight red card in stoppage time and will miss Game 2. It’s a long way back into this series for NYCFC. That couldn’t have gone better for Cincy.

SEATTLE SOUNDERS FC - 0 (5) | HOUSTON DYNAMO FC - 0 (4)
C. Carrasquilla (Red Card 66')

Well. I wrote the following yesterday:

“Who’s going to score in this series? It doesn’t feel like either team has a player in the final third destined to be a series-changer. So it really comes down to which goal-by-committee approach is more effective.

“That’s if goals come at all in this thing. You could tell me this is going to end with three separate 0-0 draws and I wouldn’t even blink”

One down, two to go. Seattle couldn’t even find the net after Coco Carrasquilla’s red card. That card could play a major role in Game 2, but last night, it probably just contributed to an already predetermined outcome. Still, it seems big that Houston will be without their best player in critical Game 2 after falling in penalties.

Then again… probably another 0-0, right?

Your Tuesday storylines

Two Round One games tonight for ya. Here’s what to keep an eye on.

Columbus take their first step toward a repeat (and the Red Bulls try to take any step)

We don’t keep secrets here at The Daily Kickoff. Columbus are heavy, heavy favorites tonight. You don’t even have to look further than each of these teams’ last games to understand why. A heavily rotated Crew side bulldozed the Red Bulls for 77 minutes, gave up two late goals, then went ahead and won anyway in stoppage time. A New York side playing for critical positioning in the Eastern Conference couldn’t even handle the Crew B-team.

RBNY haven’t really handled anyone in a while. Every foot forward has found a rake to lift and every rake has found a face to smack. Since the midway point of the season, they’ve had the lowest points per game rate of any playoff team at 1.06 points per game. Since Leagues Cup, only Chicago have been worse than New York’s 0.67 points per game.

To be fair, their underlying numbers have remained much better than that over both stretches, but at some point, you have to concede there’s at least some reason nothing is clicking for this group. They’re wayward, even with Emil Forsberg back in the lineup. Whatever edge they need to find to turn this around has been missing for months.

Going up against the Crew isn’t a time when teams normally find that edge. Columbus are looking for their second straight MLS Cup title and their fourth straight tournament final. The Red Bulls will need to put together something remarkable quickly to be the team that keeps Columbus from their final destination.

Minnesota’s DPs clicked immediately (now RSL’s need to)

Minnesota United have been a different team since the summer window. The arrival of DP striker Kelvin Yeboah and DP midfielder Joaquín Pereyra changed this team instantly. From June 1 to the start of Leagues Cup, Minnesota averaged 0.73 points per game. Since then, the Loons have averaged 2.11 points per game, the third-best mark in the league.

It’s not a coincidence that Yeboah made his first MLS start in Minnesota’s first game back from Leagues Cup. He’s scored seven times since first taking the field and is averaging a rate of 0.89 goals per 90. It’s early days, but that’s a better rate than Cucho Hernández and Christian Benteke posted this year.

Meanwhile, RSL haven’t been quite as successful with their summer additions. Pre-Leagues Cup (and before the departure of star winger Andrés Gómez) RSL averaged 1.76 points per game over 25 games. Since then, they’ve been on a respectable but not quite as impressive 1.67 points per game over nine games. Their underlying numbers have taken a hit as well.

Part of that is due to how Chicho Arango’s season got pushed off a cliff. He hasn’t scored since July 6. He somehow still finished with 17 goals on the season. You might have forgotten, but we were on a timeline where he looked set to challenge Carlos Vela’s goal-contribution record for a while. The other major part of that is Gómez left and new DP midfielder Diogo Gonçalves and new U22 winger Dominik Marczuk haven’t immediately picked up the slack. Combined, they have three goals and two assists over 11 starts. Not bad. But not a like-for-like replacement for what Gómez provided.

If they’re both being outshone by Yeboah and Pereyra in this one, then RSL might be in a lot of trouble.

Other things

Fischer named 2024 MLS Referee of the Year: Major League Soccer and the Professional Referee Organization announced Drew Fischer as the 2024 MLS Referee of the Year. It is the first time Fischer has earned this distinction.

Atkins named 2024 MLS Assistant Referee of the Year: Major League Soccer and the Professional Referee Organization announced Kyle Atkins as the 2024 MLS Assistant Referee of the Year. It is the first time Atkins has earned this distinction.

The Reading Rainbow
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Good luck out there. Put your face on the line.