And then there were four.
After a drama-filled Conference Semifinal round, a quartet of teams remain in the Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs.
As Inter Miami CF prepare to host New York City FC in Saturday's Eastern Conference Final (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass, Apple TV), followed by Vancouver Whitecaps FC visiting San Diego FC in the Western Conference Final (9 pm ET | MLS Season Pass, Apple TV), which MLS Cup presented by Audi matchups look the most likely? And which ones are mere outside shots?
Let’s dig in.
Given how strong Inter Miami are at present, the real question that decides whether you agree or disagree with the top choice in my rankings is, of course, who will win the Western Conference Final when San Diego host Vancouver. It’s no simple choice, especially with how impressive Jesper Sørensen’s Whitecaps looked in every phase for most of their gutsy Conference Semifinal victory over LAFC last Saturday night.
Still, San Diego have at least a couple of advantages heading into this weekend.
For one, they have the luxury of playing at home at Snapdragon Stadium. For another, they’ll have the chance to attack far more space compared to their nervy 1-0 win over Minnesota United FC on Monday – and they’ll have a second-choice pair of Whitecaps center backs to target following Tristan Blackmon’s red card in the Conference Semifinal. Now, you can make a convincing argument that Vancouver should be favored (one that I’ll take a crack at making momentarily), but Anders Dreyer-led San Diego are my pick to come out of the West.
As for Inter Miami… do you really need any convincing? Lionel Messi is playing the best he’s played since joining MLS, and the team is defending at a level we’ve never seen since the club’s new era began in July 2023. They just demolished FC Cincinnati on the road 4-0, and will have every chance to repeat the exercise at home against NYCFC on Saturday.
You won’t be surprised to find out that the next most likely MLS Cup matchup still features Inter Miami. Have you heard that Messi is averaging a goal or an assist every 32 minutes in the playoffs? And has 6g/6a in four games this postseason? The dude is on another planet.
This potential clash features Vancouver coming out of the West, rather than San Diego. And in truth, this meeting might be just as likely as a battle between Miami and San Diego. While the expansion team enjoyed a win and a draw against the 'Caps in two regular-season meetings, neither one of those matches featured the newest (and best) version of Vancouver. You know the one I mean – the one where Thomas Müller is lurking between the lines, picking up the ball in the half-spaces, and driving the game forward.
Now just days away from their first chance to take on the top seed in the West with the Bayern Munich legend in tow, the Whitecaps can give San Diego a different test this time around. If Müller is firing (and if Ralph Priso continues to shine as an emergency center back), Vancouver can dethrone San Diego on the road. They’re every bit good enough to pull off the 1-vs-2 upset and make their way to a star-powered MLS Cup in Florida.
It’s worth considering, for a moment, how NYCFC might find themselves sneaking past Inter Miami and traveling to the West Coast for this year’s MLS Cup. After all, this is MLS: the margins between even the very best teams and the pretty-darn-good teams are wildly slim.
What needs to go right, then, for Pascal Jansen’s team to pull off the Eastern Conference Final upset at Chase Stadium on Saturday?
Above all else, NYCFC will have to be lightning quick and devastatingly effective in attacking transitions. Knowing Miami and Messi will get their chances (and, in all likelihood, at least a goal or two), the visitors will have to be able to throw a couple of counterattacking punches of their own. According to American Soccer Analysis, NYCFC finished fifth in the regular season in fast break xG and lead all postseason teams in that same category on a per-game basis.
Just ask the Philadelphia Union how difficult it can be to slow down even a battered version of NYCFC when they have a full head of steam:
If New York City keep their lines tight and move the ball upfield with precision after they win it in their own half, they could find themselves playing against the West’s top seed in MLS Cup.
This theoretical MLS Cup matchup may be dead last in these rankings, but with so little separating Vancouver from San Diego, there’s a very real chance that we see Müller & Co. host this meeting on Saturday, Dec. 6.
While NYCFC's path to the final will be filled with more peril, their transition play could be enough to push them into the MLS Cup. If finding joy on the break doesn’t topple Inter Miami, a show-stopping performance from US men’s national team goalkeeper Matt Freese could.
Freese, who saved three goals more than expected in the regular season based on FBref’s data, has come up even bigger in the postseason. He’s saved 2.2 goals more than expected across his four playoff games so far, helping NYCFC record three shutouts in the process.
Should Freese be at his absolute best – and he’ll need to be against Inter Miami – New York City FC could find themselves flying out to Vancouver at this time next week.
